Bristol Rovers vs Salford City preview
In the League Two fixture, Bristol Rovers face Salford City with a 1X2 probability of 27% for Bristol Rovers, 27% for a draw, and 46% for Salford City. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which occurs with a 9% probability. Salford City comes into this match in strong form, with 5 wins in their last 6 games, while Bristol Rovers have struggled, recording 3 losses in their last 5.
The model indicates a 53% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance for both teams to score. Bristol Rovers are expected to score 1.18 goals, while Salford City is forecasted to net 1.61. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the predictions.
Bristol Rovers vs Salford City: model vs market
| Source | Bristol Rovers | Draw | Salford City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27% | 27% | 46% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 27% | 27% | 46% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 1.18.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Bristol Rovers and Salford City expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.79
- Attack rating (Bristol Rovers / Salford City)
- 1.05 / 1.16
- Defence rating (Bristol Rovers / Salford City)
- 1.19 / 0.80
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Bristol Rovers vs Salford City score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Bristol Rovers goals. Columns: Salford City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Bristol Rovers vs Salford City goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Bristol Rovers vs Salford City
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bristol Rovers | 27% | 3.75 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.71 | |
| Salford City | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.77 |
| No | 43% | 2.30 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Bristol Rovers or draw) | 54% | 1.86 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Salford City) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| Handicap -1 | Salford City win by 2+ | 25% | 4.05 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Bristol Rovers and Salford City recent form
Bristol Rovers
2W 0D 4L
Salford City
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Bristol Rovers at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-1
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Salford City away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Bristol Rovers at home only, Salford City away only.
Bristol Rovers vs Salford City head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Bristol Rovers 1 · draws 0 · Salford City 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Salford City | 1-0 | Bristol Rovers | League Two |
| 2025-09-27 | Bristol Rovers | 2-1 | Salford City | League Two |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Rotherham vs Newport County — team news & stats 2026-10-20
- Northampton v Tranmere — match page 2026-10-20
- Rochdale vs Grimsby — team news & stats 2026-10-20
- Walsall vs Oldham 2026-10-20
- Chesterfield v Colchester — match page 2026-10-20
- Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury — team news & stats 2026-10-20
- Exeter City vs Crewe 2026-10-20
- Barnet v Swindon Town — match page 2026-10-20
Before and after this match
- Bristol Rovers, previous: Shrewsbury – Bristol Rovers, 2026-10-17
- Salford City, previous: Salford City vs Crawley Town: odds and pick