Rochdale vs Grimsby preview
In the League Two fixture between Rochdale and Grimsby, the 1X2 probabilities show Rochdale at 41%, Grimsby at 30%, and a draw at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs with a 10% probability. Rochdale's expected goals stand at 1.39, while Grimsby has 1.16.
Both teams to score has a probability of 53%, indicating a decent chance for goals from both sides. However, if Rochdale's recent form, which includes 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 6 matches, falters, it could lead to a different outcome. Grimsby’s recent form shows 3 losses in their last 6, which may affect their performance. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Rochdale vs Grimsby: model vs market
| Source | Rochdale | Draw | Grimsby |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 29% | 30% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 41% | 29% | 30% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Rochdale and Grimsby expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.55
- Attack rating (Rochdale / Grimsby)
- 1.00 / 1.02
- Defence rating (Rochdale / Grimsby)
- 0.97 / 1.00
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Rochdale vs Grimsby score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Rochdale goals. Columns: Grimsby goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Rochdale vs Grimsby goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Rochdale vs Grimsby
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rochdale | 41% | 2.45 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.45 | |
| Grimsby | 30% | 3.31 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.13 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.89 |
| No | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Rochdale or draw) | 70% | 1.43 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Grimsby) | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Handicap -1 | Rochdale win by 2+ | 20% | 5.05 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Rochdale and Grimsby recent form
Rochdale
3W 2D 1L
Grimsby
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Rochdale at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-2
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Grimsby away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Rochdale at home only, Grimsby away only.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
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- Northampton v Tranmere — match page 2026-10-20
- Walsall vs Oldham 2026-10-20
- Chesterfield v Colchester — match page 2026-10-20
- Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury — team news & stats 2026-10-20
- Exeter City vs Crewe 2026-10-20
- Barnet v Swindon Town — match page 2026-10-20
Before and after this match
- Rochdale, previous: Crewe vs Rochdale: odds and pick
- Grimsby, previous: Grimsby vs Northampton prediction