Northampton vs Tranmere preview
In the League Two fixture between Northampton and Tranmere, the 1X2 probabilities show Tranmere at 41%, while Northampton stands at 27%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 13%. This suggests Tranmere may edge the match, but a draw at 32% is also a possibility.
Both teams to score has a probability of 44%, indicating a reasonable chance that both sides will find the net. However, with expected goals of 0.94 for Northampton and 1.21 for Tranmere, the match could also lean towards a low-scoring affair, making Over 2.5 goals at 37% less likely. The recent form shows Northampton with 2 draws and 3 losses, while Tranmere has 1 win in their last 6 matches.
Northampton vs Tranmere: model vs market
| Source | Northampton | Draw | Tranmere |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27% | 32% | 41% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 27% | 32% | 41% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Northampton and Tranmere expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.16
- Attack rating (Northampton / Tranmere)
- 0.61 / 0.99
- Defence rating (Northampton / Tranmere)
- 1.05 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Northampton vs Tranmere score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Northampton goals. Columns: Tranmere goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Northampton vs Tranmere goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Northampton vs Tranmere
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Northampton | 27% | 3.67 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.15 | |
| Tranmere | 41% | 2.44 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37% | 2.74 |
| Under 2.5 | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.26 |
| No | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Northampton or draw) | 59% | 1.69 |
| 12 (either side) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| X2 (draw or Tranmere) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| Handicap -1 | Tranmere win by 2+ | 19% | 5.40 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Northampton and Tranmere recent form
Northampton
1W 3D 2L
Tranmere
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Northampton at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tranmere away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Northampton at home only, Tranmere away only.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Rotherham vs Newport County — team news & stats 2026-10-20
- Bristol Rovers vs Salford City 2026-10-20
- Rochdale vs Grimsby — team news & stats 2026-10-20
- Walsall vs Oldham 2026-10-20
- Chesterfield v Colchester — match page 2026-10-20
- Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury — team news & stats 2026-10-20
- Exeter City vs Crewe 2026-10-20
- Barnet v Swindon Town — match page 2026-10-20
Before and after this match
- Northampton, previous: Grimsby vs Northampton prediction
- Tranmere, previous: Tranmere v Barnet analysis