Walsall vs Oldham preview
Walsall faces Oldham with a 55% probability to win, compared to Oldham's 16%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 15% of the time in our model. Walsall has an expected goals figure of 1.51, while Oldham sits at 0.71.
However, the match could see different outcomes. Both teams to score stands at 41%, suggesting that Oldham could find the net despite their recent struggles. Walsall's recent form shows 3 draws and 1 win in their last 6 matches, while Oldham has 4 losses and 2 draws. A change in form or an unexpected goal could alter the expected result.
Walsall vs Oldham: model vs market
| Source | Walsall | Draw | Oldham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 28% | 16% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 55% | 28% | 16% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 0.71.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Walsall and Oldham expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.22
- Attack rating (Walsall / Oldham)
- 0.91 / 0.81
- Defence rating (Walsall / Oldham)
- 0.75 / 1.20
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Walsall vs Oldham score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Walsall goals. Columns: Oldham goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Walsall vs Oldham goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 41%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Walsall vs Oldham
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Walsall | 55% | 1.81 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.52 | |
| Oldham | 16% | 6.06 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38% | 2.61 |
| Under 2.5 | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41% | 2.44 |
| No | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Walsall or draw) | 84% | 1.20 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Oldham) | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Handicap -1 | Walsall win by 2+ | 29% | 3.40 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Walsall and Oldham recent form
Walsall
1W 5D 0L
Oldham
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Walsall at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Oldham away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Walsall at home only, Oldham away only.
Walsall vs Oldham head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Walsall 1 · draws 0 · Oldham 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-29 | Walsall | 1-2 | Oldham | League Two |
| 2025-12-10 | Oldham | 0-1 | Walsall | League Two |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
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Before and after this match
- Walsall, previous: Swindon Town vs Walsall prediction
- Oldham, previous: Oldham v Cheltenham analysis