Oldham vs Cheltenham preview
In the League Two fixture between Oldham and Cheltenham, the 1X2 probabilities show Oldham at 38%, Cheltenham at 35%, and a draw at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance. The model predicts a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams to score at 60%.
Oldham's recent form is poor, with 4 losses and only 2 draws in their last 6 matches. Cheltenham has shown slightly better form, with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses in the same period. The expected goals are close, with Oldham at 1.50 and Cheltenham at 1.42. A different outcome could arise if Oldham improves their form or if Cheltenham fails to capitalize on their chances.
Oldham vs Cheltenham: model vs market
| Source | Oldham | Draw | Cheltenham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38% | 27% | 35% |
| Market | 54% | 24% | 21% |
| Published | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| Edge | -16% | +3% | +13% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.72, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Oldham vs Cheltenham odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Oldham, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oldham | 1.71 | 1.69 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.94 | 3.81 | -0.13 |
| Cheltenham | 4.29 | 4.31 | +0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Oldham and Cheltenham expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.92
- Attack rating (Oldham / Cheltenham)
- 0.81 / 1.02
- Defence rating (Oldham / Cheltenham)
- 1.20 / 1.33
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Oldham vs Cheltenham score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Oldham goals. Columns: Cheltenham goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Oldham vs Cheltenham goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Oldham vs Cheltenham
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Oldham | 50% | 1.98 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.02 | |
| Cheltenham | 25% | 4.05 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.27 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.66 |
| No | 40% | 2.51 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Oldham or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Cheltenham) | 50% | 2.02 | |
| Handicap -1 | Oldham win by 2+ | 19% | 5.22 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Oldham and Cheltenham recent form
Oldham
0W 2D 4L
Cheltenham
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Oldham at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
Cheltenham away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Oldham at home only, Cheltenham away only.
Oldham vs Cheltenham head-to-head
Last 8 meetings: Oldham 4 · draws 2 · Cheltenham 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Oldham | 2-1 | Cheltenham | League Two |
| 2025-09-20 | Cheltenham | 0-3 | Oldham | League Two |
| 2021-01-26 | Cheltenham | 2-0 | Oldham | League Two |
| 2020-11-03 | Oldham | 2-1 | Cheltenham | League Two |
| 2020-01-04 | Cheltenham | 3-0 | Oldham | League Two |
| 2019-10-05 | Oldham | 1-1 | Cheltenham | League Two |
| 2019-04-19 | Cheltenham | 0-0 | Oldham | League Two |
| 2018-10-23 | Oldham | 2-0 | Cheltenham | League Two |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Port Vale vs Chesterfield — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Swindon Town vs Walsall 2026-10-17
- Accrington ST v Gillingham — match page 2026-10-17
- Colchester vs Exeter City — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Crewe vs Rochdale 2026-10-17
- Grimsby v Northampton — match page 2026-10-17
- Newport County vs York — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Tranmere vs Barnet 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Oldham, previous: Oldham vs Accrington ST prediction
- Oldham, next: Walsall vs Oldham prediction
- Cheltenham, previous: Cheltenham – Salford City, 2026-10-10
- Cheltenham, next: Cheltenham – Fleetwood Town, 2026-10-20