Port Vale vs Chesterfield preview
In the League Two fixture between Port Vale and Chesterfield, the 1X2 probabilities show Chesterfield at 48%, while Port Vale sits at 22%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which aligns with Chesterfield's expected goals of 1.38 compared to Port Vale's 0.86.
However, the match could deviate from this prediction if Port Vale improves their recent form, which includes two wins and three losses in their last five matches. Additionally, both teams to score is at 44%, indicating a possibility for Port Vale to find the net, which could change the outcome.
Port Vale vs Chesterfield: model vs market
| Source | Port Vale | Draw | Chesterfield |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22% | 30% | 48% |
| Market | 35% | 27% | 38% |
| Published | 32% | 28% | 40% |
| Edge | -13% | +3% | +10% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.38 vs 0.86.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Chesterfield below the model: +9.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Port Vale vs Chesterfield odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Chesterfield, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Port Vale | 2.64 | 2.63 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.38 | 3.39 | +0.01 |
| Chesterfield | 2.45 | 2.43 | -0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Port Vale and Chesterfield expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.23
- Attack rating (Port Vale / Chesterfield)
- 0.60 / 1.24
- Defence rating (Port Vale / Chesterfield)
- 0.95 / 1.03
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Port Vale vs Chesterfield score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Port Vale goals. Columns: Chesterfield goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Port Vale vs Chesterfield goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Port Vale vs Chesterfield
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Port Vale | 32% | 3.15 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.58 | |
| Chesterfield | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39% | 2.59 |
| Under 2.5 | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.26 |
| No | 56% | 1.80 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Port Vale or draw) | 60% | 1.68 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Chesterfield) | 68% | 1.46 | |
| Handicap -1 | Chesterfield win by 2+ | 24% | 4.22 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Port Vale and Chesterfield recent form
Port Vale
2W 1D 3L
Chesterfield
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Port Vale at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 0.25
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They average 0.8 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Chesterfield away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Port Vale at home only, Chesterfield away only.
Port Vale vs Chesterfield head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Port Vale 5 · draws 2 · Chesterfield 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Chesterfield | 1-1 | Port Vale | EFL Trophy |
| 2025-01-25 | Chesterfield | 1-1 | Port Vale | League Two |
| 2024-09-14 | Port Vale | 1-0 | Chesterfield | League Two |
| 2021-07-31 | Chesterfield | 0-1 | Port Vale | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2018-03-30 | Port Vale | 2-1 | Chesterfield | League Two |
| 2017-08-19 | Chesterfield | 2-0 | Port Vale | League Two |
| 2017-04-08 | Chesterfield | 1-0 | Port Vale | League One |
| 2016-12-30 | Port Vale | 1-0 | Chesterfield | League One |
| 2016-04-02 | Chesterfield | 4-2 | Port Vale | League One |
| 2015-11-21 | Port Vale | 3-2 | Chesterfield | League One |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Oldham v Cheltenham — match page 2026-10-17
- Swindon Town vs Walsall 2026-10-17
- Accrington ST v Gillingham — match page 2026-10-17
- Colchester vs Exeter City — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Crewe vs Rochdale 2026-10-17
- Grimsby v Northampton — match page 2026-10-17
- Newport County vs York — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Tranmere vs Barnet 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Port Vale, previous: Port Vale – Grimsby, 2026-10-10
- Port Vale, next: Gillingham vs Port Vale: odds and pick
- Chesterfield, previous: Crawley Town vs Chesterfield: odds and pick
- Chesterfield, next: Chesterfield – Colchester, 2026-10-20