Crewe vs Rochdale preview
In the League Two fixture between Crewe and Rochdale, the 1X2 probabilities show Crewe at 45%, Rochdale at 25%, and a draw at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Crewe, with a 12% chance.
Crewe's expected goals stand at 1.34, while Rochdale's is 0.94. The model indicates a 40% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance for both teams to score. Factors that could affect these predictions include unexpected player performances or tactical changes during the match.
Crewe vs Rochdale: model vs market
| Source | Crewe | Draw | Rochdale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 30% | 25% |
| Market | 51% | 26% | 23% |
| Published | 49% | 27% | 24% |
| Edge | -6% | +5% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.34 vs 0.94.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.87, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Crewe vs Rochdale odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Crewe, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crewe | 1.82 | 1.81 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.60 | +0.00 |
| Rochdale | 3.95 | 3.95 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Crewe and Rochdale expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.28
- Attack rating (Crewe / Rochdale)
- 0.99 / 1.00
- Defence rating (Crewe / Rochdale)
- 0.81 / 0.97
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Crewe vs Rochdale score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Crewe goals. Columns: Rochdale goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Crewe vs Rochdale goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Crewe vs Rochdale
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Crewe | 49% | 2.02 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.73 | |
| Rochdale | 24% | 4.20 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40% | 2.50 |
| Under 2.5 | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.16 |
| No | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Crewe or draw) | 76% | 1.31 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Rochdale) | 51% | 1.98 | |
| Handicap -1 | Crewe win by 2+ | 22% | 4.64 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Crewe and Rochdale recent form
Crewe
2W 4D 0L
Rochdale
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Crewe at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-0
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
Rochdale away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Crewe at home only, Rochdale away only.
Crewe vs Rochdale head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Crewe 2 · draws 4 · Rochdale 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-02-25 | Crewe | 1-1 | Rochdale | League Two |
| 2022-07-30 | Rochdale | 1-2 | Crewe | League Two |
| 2021-04-24 | Crewe | 1-1 | Rochdale | League One |
| 2021-01-09 | Rochdale | 3-3 | Crewe | League One |
| 2016-02-16 | Rochdale | 2-2 | Crewe | League One |
| 2016-02-06 | Crewe | 2-0 | Rochdale | League One |
| 2015-03-03 | Rochdale | 4-0 | Crewe | League One |
| 2014-09-02 | Crewe | 0-3 | Rochdale | EFL Trophy |
| 2014-08-19 | Crewe | 2-5 | Rochdale | League One |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Oldham v Cheltenham — match page 2026-10-17
- Port Vale vs Chesterfield — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Swindon Town vs Walsall 2026-10-17
- Accrington ST v Gillingham — match page 2026-10-17
- Colchester vs Exeter City — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Grimsby v Northampton — match page 2026-10-17
- Newport County vs York — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Tranmere vs Barnet 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Crewe, previous: Swindon Town – Crewe, 2026-10-10
- Crewe, next: Exeter City vs Crewe: odds and pick
- Rochdale, previous: Tranmere v Rochdale analysis
- Rochdale, next: Rochdale vs Grimsby: odds and pick