Swindon Town vs Walsall preview
Swindon Town hosts Walsall with 21% chances of a home win compared to 47% for Walsall in the 1X2 probabilities. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, reflecting Walsall's expected goals of 1.28 against Swindon Town's 0.77.
Swindon Town's recent form shows 4 losses in 5 matches, while Walsall has drawn their last 6 games. The model indicates a 34% chance for Over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score. If Swindon Town improves their attacking output, the match could see different outcomes than predicted.
Swindon Town vs Walsall: model vs market
| Source | Swindon Town | Draw | Walsall |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21% | 32% | 47% |
| Market | 35% | 26% | 39% |
| Published | 32% | 27% | 41% |
| Edge | -14% | +5% | +9% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.28 vs 0.77.
- The market prices Walsall below the model: +8.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.47, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Swindon Town vs Walsall odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Walsall, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swindon Town | 2.62 | 2.60 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.56 | 3.52 | -0.04 |
| Walsall | 2.43 | 2.39 | -0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Swindon Town and Walsall expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.05
- Attack rating (Swindon Town / Walsall)
- 0.73 / 0.91
- Defence rating (Swindon Town / Walsall)
- 1.21 / 0.75
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Swindon Town vs Walsall score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Swindon Town goals. Columns: Walsall goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Swindon Town vs Walsall goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 40%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Swindon Town vs Walsall
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Swindon Town | 32% | 3.14 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.64 | |
| Walsall | 41% | 2.46 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34% | 2.96 |
| Under 2.5 | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40% | 2.50 |
| No | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Swindon Town or draw) | 59% | 1.69 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Walsall) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Handicap -1 | Walsall win by 2+ | 23% | 4.44 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Swindon Town and Walsall recent form
Swindon Town
1W 1D 4L
Walsall
1W 5D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Swindon Town at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 10 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Walsall away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-4-0
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Swindon Town at home only, Walsall away only.
Swindon Town vs Walsall head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Swindon Town 4 · draws 1 · Walsall 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | Swindon Town | 2-1 | Walsall | League Two |
| 2025-08-02 | Walsall | 2-1 | Swindon Town | League Two |
| 2025-03-01 | Walsall | 0-1 | Swindon Town | League Two |
| 2024-08-17 | Swindon Town | 0-4 | Walsall | League Two |
| 2024-04-16 | Walsall | 2-1 | Swindon Town | League Two |
| 2023-09-16 | Swindon Town | 2-0 | Walsall | League Two |
| 2023-03-14 | Walsall | 0-0 | Swindon Town | League Two |
| 2022-12-26 | Swindon Town | 1-2 | Walsall | League Two |
| 2022-08-09 | Walsall | 2-0 | Swindon Town | League Cup |
| 2022-05-07 | Walsall | 0-3 | Swindon Town | League Two |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Oldham v Cheltenham — match page 2026-10-17
- Port Vale vs Chesterfield — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Accrington ST v Gillingham — match page 2026-10-17
- Colchester vs Exeter City — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Crewe vs Rochdale 2026-10-17
- Grimsby v Northampton — match page 2026-10-17
- Newport County vs York — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Tranmere vs Barnet 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Swindon Town, previous: Swindon Town – Crewe, 2026-10-10
- Swindon Town, next: Barnet vs Swindon Town prediction
- Walsall, previous: Fleetwood Town vs Walsall prediction
- Walsall, next: Walsall vs Oldham prediction