Grimsby vs Northampton preview
In the League Two fixture between Grimsby and Northampton, the 1X2 probabilities show Grimsy at 55%, while Northampton stands at 16%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 15% chance according to our model. Grimsby has an expected goals figure of 1.50, compared to Northampton's 0.71, indicating a stronger attacking performance.
However, the prediction could be impacted by recent form, where Grimsby has recorded three losses in their last five matches, while Northampton has two draws and three losses. The chances for Over 2.5 goals sit at 38%, and both teams to score is at 40%, suggesting that while Grimsby is favored, the match could still be tighter than expected.
Grimsby vs Northampton: model vs market
| Source | Grimsby | Draw | Northampton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 28% | 16% |
| Market | 54% | 25% | 21% |
| Published | 54% | 26% | 20% |
| Edge | +1% | +4% | -5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 0.71.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Grimsby vs Northampton odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Grimsby, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grimsby | 1.67 | 1.71 | +0.04 |
| Draw | 3.90 | 3.75 | -0.15 |
| Northampton | 4.50 | 4.39 | -0.11 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Grimsby and Northampton expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.20
- Attack rating (Grimsby / Northampton)
- 1.02 / 0.61
- Defence rating (Grimsby / Northampton)
- 1.00 / 1.05
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Grimsby vs Northampton score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Grimsby goals. Columns: Northampton goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Grimsby vs Northampton goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 40%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Grimsby vs Northampton
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Grimsby | 54% | 1.84 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.89 | |
| Northampton | 20% | 5.01 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38% | 2.64 |
| Under 2.5 | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40% | 2.47 |
| No | 60% | 1.68 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Grimsby or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Northampton) | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Handicap -1 | Grimsby win by 2+ | 29% | 3.41 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Grimsby and Northampton recent form
Grimsby
2W 1D 3L
Northampton
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Grimsby at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
Northampton away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Grimsby at home only, Northampton away only.
Grimsby vs Northampton head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Grimsby 2 · draws 3 · Northampton 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-02-18 | Northampton | 1-2 | Grimsby | League Two |
| 2022-08-06 | Grimsby | 1-1 | Northampton | League Two |
| 2020-02-29 | Grimsby | 0-3 | Northampton | League Two |
| 2019-11-23 | Northampton | 2-0 | Grimsby | League Two |
| 2019-03-16 | Grimsby | 0-0 | Northampton | League Two |
| 2018-11-24 | Northampton | 2-2 | Grimsby | League Two |
| 2013-12-07 | Grimsby | 2-0 | Northampton | FA Cup |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Oldham v Cheltenham — match page 2026-10-17
- Port Vale vs Chesterfield — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Swindon Town vs Walsall 2026-10-17
- Accrington ST v Gillingham — match page 2026-10-17
- Colchester vs Exeter City — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Crewe vs Rochdale 2026-10-17
- Newport County vs York — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Tranmere vs Barnet 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Grimsby, previous: Port Vale – Grimsby, 2026-10-10
- Grimsby, next: Rochdale vs Grimsby: odds and pick
- Northampton, previous: York vs Northampton: odds and pick
- Northampton, next: Northampton v Tranmere analysis