Accrington ST vs Gillingham preview
In the League Two match between Accrington ST and Gillingham, the 1X2 probabilities show Accrington ST at 39%, Gillingham at 34%, and a draw at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 8% chance. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Accrington ST recording D-W-D-D-L-W and Gillingham at W-D-L-W-W-W.
The model indicates a 53% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance for both teams to score. Accrington ST has expected goals of 1.38, while Gillingham has 1.42. If either team underperforms in attack or defense, these predictions could change significantly.
Accrington ST vs Gillingham: model vs market
| Source | Accrington ST | Draw | Gillingham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| Market | 41% | 26% | 33% |
| Published | 39% | 27% | 34% |
| Edge | -6% | +1% | +4% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.37, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Accrington ST vs Gillingham odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Accrington ST, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Accrington ST | 2.21 | 2.25 | +0.04 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.50 | +0.00 |
| Gillingham | 2.90 | 2.80 | -0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Accrington ST and Gillingham expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.79
- Attack rating (Accrington ST / Gillingham)
- 0.97 / 1.15
- Defence rating (Accrington ST / Gillingham)
- 1.05 / 1.02
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Accrington ST vs Gillingham score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Accrington ST goals. Columns: Gillingham goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Accrington ST vs Gillingham goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Accrington ST vs Gillingham
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Accrington ST | 39% | 2.53 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.75 | |
| Gillingham | 34% | 2.95 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.73 |
| No | 42% | 2.37 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Accrington ST or draw) | 66% | 1.51 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Gillingham) | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Handicap -1 | Accrington ST win by 2+ | 17% | 6.02 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Accrington ST and Gillingham recent form
Accrington ST
2W 3D 1L
Gillingham
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Accrington ST at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-0
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gillingham away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Accrington ST at home only, Gillingham away only.
Accrington ST vs Gillingham head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Accrington ST 2 · draws 3 · Gillingham 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | Gillingham | 2-0 | Accrington ST | League Two |
| 2025-08-02 | Accrington ST | 1-1 | Gillingham | League Two |
| 2025-03-15 | Accrington ST | 1-1 | Gillingham | League Two |
| 2024-10-12 | Gillingham | 1-2 | Accrington ST | League Two |
| 2024-01-13 | Accrington ST | 1-2 | Gillingham | League Two |
| 2023-08-12 | Gillingham | 1-0 | Accrington ST | League Two |
| 2022-03-26 | Accrington ST | 1-2 | Gillingham | League One |
| 2021-10-30 | Gillingham | 0-0 | Accrington ST | League One |
| 2021-01-16 | Accrington ST | 0-1 | Gillingham | League One |
| 2020-12-15 | Gillingham | 0-2 | Accrington ST | League One |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Oldham v Cheltenham — match page 2026-10-17
- Port Vale vs Chesterfield — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Swindon Town vs Walsall 2026-10-17
- Colchester vs Exeter City — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Crewe vs Rochdale 2026-10-17
- Grimsby v Northampton — match page 2026-10-17
- Newport County vs York — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Tranmere vs Barnet 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Accrington ST, previous: Oldham vs Accrington ST prediction
- Accrington ST, next: York v Accrington ST analysis
- Gillingham, previous: Rotherham v Gillingham analysis
- Gillingham, next: Gillingham vs Port Vale: odds and pick