York vs Accrington ST preview
In the League Two fixture between York and Accrington ST, the 1X2 probabilities show York at 54%, with the most likely scoreline being 2-1 (10%). Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are both predicted at 59%.
York's expected goals stand at 1.91, while Accrington ST's is lower at 1.16. However, recent form could impact the outcome, as York has a mixed record of D-W-L-W-D-L, while Accrington ST has been more consistent with D-W-D-D-L-W. This could lead to a different result than predicted.
York vs Accrington ST: model vs market
| Source | York | Draw | Accrington ST |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 24% | 22% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 54% | 24% | 22% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 1.16.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
York and Accrington ST expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.07
- Attack rating (York / Accrington ST)
- 1.30 / 0.97
- Defence rating (York / Accrington ST)
- 1.02 / 1.05
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
York vs Accrington ST score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: York goals. Columns: Accrington ST goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
York vs Accrington ST goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for York vs Accrington ST
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | York | 54% | 1.85 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.12 | |
| Accrington ST | 22% | 4.59 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.45 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.68 |
| No | 41% | 2.47 | |
| Double chance | 1X (York or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Accrington ST) | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Handicap -1 | York win by 2+ | 32% | 3.13 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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York and Accrington ST recent form
York
2W 2D 2L
Accrington ST
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
York at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-0
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 2.60
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Accrington ST away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: York at home only, Accrington ST away only.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Rotherham vs Newport County — team news & stats 2026-10-20
- Bristol Rovers vs Salford City 2026-10-20
- Northampton v Tranmere — match page 2026-10-20
- Rochdale vs Grimsby — team news & stats 2026-10-20
- Walsall vs Oldham 2026-10-20
- Chesterfield v Colchester — match page 2026-10-20
- Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury — team news & stats 2026-10-20
- Exeter City vs Crewe 2026-10-20
Before and after this match
- York, previous: Newport County – York, 2026-10-17
- Accrington ST, previous: Accrington ST – Gillingham, 2026-10-17