Chesterfield vs Colchester preview
Chesterfield faces Colchester with a 53% probability of winning, while Colchester has a 22% chance according to our model. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with Chesterfield's expected goals of 1.80 compared to Colchester's 1.10. There is a 55% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance that both teams will score.
Chesterfield's recent form shows two wins in their last five matches, while Colchester has struggled with just one draw in their last six games. This contrast in form could influence the match outcome. However, the head-to-head record is balanced, with each team winning once in their last two encounters, which could lead to an unexpected result.
Chesterfield vs Colchester: model vs market
| Source | Chesterfield | Draw | Colchester |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 25% | 22% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 53% | 25% | 22% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.80 vs 1.10.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Chesterfield and Colchester expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.90
- Attack rating (Chesterfield / Colchester)
- 1.24 / 0.91
- Defence rating (Chesterfield / Colchester)
- 1.03 / 1.05
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Chesterfield vs Colchester score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Chesterfield goals. Columns: Colchester goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Chesterfield vs Colchester goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Chesterfield vs Colchester
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chesterfield | 53% | 1.89 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.95 | |
| Colchester | 22% | 4.57 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.76 |
| No | 43% | 2.31 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Chesterfield or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Colchester) | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Handicap -1 | Chesterfield win by 2+ | 30% | 3.30 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Chesterfield and Colchester recent form
Chesterfield
3W 2D 1L
Colchester
0W 3D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Chesterfield at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Colchester away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Chesterfield at home only, Colchester away only.
Chesterfield vs Colchester head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Chesterfield 1 · draws 0 · Colchester 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03 | Chesterfield | 3-0 | Colchester | League Two |
| 2025-10-04 | Colchester | 6-2 | Chesterfield | League Two |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Rotherham vs Newport County — team news & stats 2026-10-20
- Bristol Rovers vs Salford City 2026-10-20
- Northampton v Tranmere — match page 2026-10-20
- Rochdale vs Grimsby — team news & stats 2026-10-20
- Walsall vs Oldham 2026-10-20
- Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury — team news & stats 2026-10-20
- Exeter City vs Crewe 2026-10-20
- Barnet v Swindon Town — match page 2026-10-20
Before and after this match
- Chesterfield, previous: Port Vale vs Chesterfield: odds and pick
- Colchester, previous: Colchester v Exeter City analysis