Rotherham vs Newport County preview
In the match between Rotherham and Newport County, the 1X2 probabilities show Newport County at 44%, compared to Rotherham's 27%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 10% chance according to our model. Newport County's recent form includes three wins and two draws, while Rotherham has two losses and only one win in their last six matches.
The expected goals indicate Rotherham at 1.07 and Newport County at 1.44. While both teams to score is at 51%, the likelihood of Over 2.5 goals stands at 46%. These figures suggest a close match, but if Rotherham can improve their form, they might challenge Newport County's current advantage.
Rotherham vs Newport County: model vs market
| Source | Rotherham | Draw | Newport County |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27% | 29% | 44% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 27% | 29% | 44% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.44 vs 1.07.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Rotherham and Newport County expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.51
- Attack rating (Rotherham / Newport County)
- 0.92 / 0.95
- Defence rating (Rotherham / Newport County)
- 1.29 / 0.84
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Rotherham vs Newport County score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Rotherham goals. Columns: Newport County goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Rotherham vs Newport County goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Rotherham vs Newport County
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rotherham | 27% | 3.72 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.46 | |
| Newport County | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.19 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.95 |
| No | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Rotherham or draw) | 56% | 1.79 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Newport County) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| Handicap -1 | Newport County win by 2+ | 22% | 4.52 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Rotherham and Newport County recent form
Rotherham
1W 2D 3L
Newport County
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Rotherham at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-1
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Newport County away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 65% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Rotherham at home only, Newport County away only.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
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- Northampton v Tranmere — match page 2026-10-20
- Rochdale vs Grimsby — team news & stats 2026-10-20
- Walsall vs Oldham 2026-10-20
- Chesterfield v Colchester — match page 2026-10-20
- Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury — team news & stats 2026-10-20
- Exeter City vs Crewe 2026-10-20
- Barnet v Swindon Town — match page 2026-10-20
Before and after this match
- Rotherham, previous: Fleetwood Town vs Rotherham prediction
- Newport County, previous: Newport County – York, 2026-10-17