Fleetwood Town vs Rotherham preview
Fleetwood Town faces Rotherham with a 53% chance of winning according to our model. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which has an 11% probability. Fleetwood's expected goals stand at 1.65, while Rotherham's are lower at 0.93.
However, the match could see different outcomes. Both teams to score has a 50% chance, and there's a 48% probability of Over 2.5 goals. Fleetwood's recent form shows mixed results with D-L-L-L-W-D, while Rotherham has struggled with L-L-D-W-D-L. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, indicating some uncertainty.
Fleetwood Town vs Rotherham: model vs market
| Source | Fleetwood Town | Draw | Rotherham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 27% | 20% |
| Market | 37% | 28% | 35% |
| Published | 41% | 27% | 31% |
| Edge | +16% | -1% | -15% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.65 vs 0.93.
- The market prices Fleetwood Town below the model: +15.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Fleetwood Town vs Rotherham odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Fleetwood Town, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town | 2.44 | 2.46 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 3.36 | 3.35 | -0.00 |
| Rotherham | 2.64 | 2.63 | -0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Fleetwood Town and Rotherham expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.58
- Attack rating (Fleetwood Town / Rotherham)
- 0.92 / 0.92
- Defence rating (Fleetwood Town / Rotherham)
- 0.87 / 1.29
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Fleetwood Town vs Rotherham score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Fleetwood Town goals. Columns: Rotherham goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Fleetwood Town vs Rotherham goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Fleetwood Town vs Rotherham
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fleetwood Town | 41% | 2.42 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.66 | |
| Rotherham | 31% | 3.20 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.10 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 2.00 |
| No | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Fleetwood Town or draw) | 69% | 1.45 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Rotherham) | 59% | 1.71 | |
| Handicap -1 | Fleetwood Town win by 2+ | 30% | 3.39 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Fleetwood Town and Rotherham recent form
Fleetwood Town
1W 2D 3L
Rotherham
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Fleetwood Town at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-1
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
Rotherham away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Fleetwood Town at home only, Rotherham away only.
Fleetwood Town vs Rotherham head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Fleetwood Town 4 · draws 1 · Rotherham 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-27 | Fleetwood Town | 2-1 | Rotherham | League Cup |
| 2022-07-07 | Rotherham | 2-0 | Fleetwood Town | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2022-07-07 | Fleetwood Town | 0-2 | Rotherham | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2022-01-15 | Fleetwood Town | 1-0 | Rotherham | League One |
| 2021-09-11 | Rotherham | 2-4 | Fleetwood Town | League One |
| 2019-12-21 | Rotherham | 2-2 | Fleetwood Town | League One |
| 2018-04-07 | Rotherham | 3-2 | Fleetwood Town | League One |
| 2017-08-05 | Fleetwood Town | 2-0 | Rotherham | League One |
| 2014-08-12 | Rotherham | 1-0 | Fleetwood Town | League Cup |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Shrewsbury vs Bristol Rovers 2026-10-17
- Oldham v Cheltenham — match page 2026-10-17
- Port Vale vs Chesterfield — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Swindon Town vs Walsall 2026-10-17
- Accrington ST v Gillingham — match page 2026-10-17
- Colchester vs Exeter City — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Crewe vs Rochdale 2026-10-17
- Grimsby v Northampton — match page 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Fleetwood Town, previous: Fleetwood Town vs Walsall prediction
- Fleetwood Town, next: Cheltenham – Fleetwood Town, 2026-10-20
- Rotherham, previous: Rotherham v Gillingham analysis
- Rotherham, next: Rotherham vs Newport County prediction