Shrewsbury vs Bristol Rovers preview
In the League Two fixture between Shrewsbury and Bristol Rovers, the 1X2 probabilities show Bristol Rovers at 38% and Shrewsbury at 34%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.29 for Shrewsbury and 1.37 for Bristol Rovers.
Both teams have mixed recent form, with Shrewsbury recording 2 wins in their last 6 matches and Bristol Rovers achieving 2 wins in their last 6 as well. The model indicates a 50% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance for both teams to score. However, Shrewsbury's poor head-to-head record against Bristol Rovers, with 0 wins in the last 2 meetings, could influence the outcome.
Shrewsbury vs Bristol Rovers: model vs market
| Source | Shrewsbury | Draw | Bristol Rovers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 28% | 38% |
| Market | 31% | 28% | 41% |
| Published | 31% | 28% | 40% |
| Edge | +3% | 0% | -4% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.29, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Shrewsbury vs Bristol Rovers odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Bristol Rovers, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shrewsbury | 3.00 | 3.04 | +0.04 |
| Draw | 3.28 | 3.26 | -0.02 |
| Bristol Rovers | 2.25 | 2.25 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Shrewsbury and Bristol Rovers expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.66
- Attack rating (Shrewsbury / Bristol Rovers)
- 0.78 / 1.05
- Defence rating (Shrewsbury / Bristol Rovers)
- 1.11 / 1.19
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Shrewsbury vs Bristol Rovers score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Shrewsbury goals. Columns: Bristol Rovers goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Shrewsbury vs Bristol Rovers goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Shrewsbury vs Bristol Rovers
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Shrewsbury | 31% | 3.19 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.52 | |
| Bristol Rovers | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.01 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.81 |
| No | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Shrewsbury or draw) | 60% | 1.67 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Bristol Rovers) | 69% | 1.46 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bristol Rovers win by 2+ | 18% | 5.60 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Shrewsbury and Bristol Rovers recent form
Shrewsbury
2W 2D 2L
Bristol Rovers
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Shrewsbury at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
Bristol Rovers away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-4
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.20
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Shrewsbury at home only, Bristol Rovers away only.
Shrewsbury vs Bristol Rovers head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Shrewsbury 1 · draws 3 · Bristol Rovers 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-17 | Bristol Rovers | 1-0 | Shrewsbury | League Two |
| 2026-01-01 | Shrewsbury | 0-3 | Bristol Rovers | League Two |
| 2025-03-04 | Shrewsbury | 0-0 | Bristol Rovers | League One |
| 2024-10-22 | Bristol Rovers | 1-0 | Shrewsbury | League One |
| 2024-04-01 | Bristol Rovers | 0-0 | Shrewsbury | League One |
| 2023-09-16 | Shrewsbury | 0-2 | Bristol Rovers | League One |
| 2023-05-02 | Shrewsbury | 2-1 | Bristol Rovers | League One |
| 2022-08-27 | Bristol Rovers | 1-1 | Shrewsbury | League One |
| 2021-02-27 | Bristol Rovers | 2-1 | Shrewsbury | League One |
| 2020-10-20 | Shrewsbury | 0-1 | Bristol Rovers | League One |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
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- Port Vale vs Chesterfield — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Swindon Town vs Walsall 2026-10-17
- Accrington ST v Gillingham — match page 2026-10-17
- Colchester vs Exeter City — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Crewe vs Rochdale 2026-10-17
- Grimsby v Northampton — match page 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Shrewsbury, previous: Shrewsbury v Exeter City analysis
- Shrewsbury, next: Crawley Town v Shrewsbury analysis
- Bristol Rovers, previous: Bristol Rovers vs Barnet: odds and pick
- Bristol Rovers, next: Bristol Rovers – Salford City, 2026-10-20