Colchester vs Exeter City preview
In the League Two match between Colchester and Exeter City, Colchester has a 43% chance to win, while Exeter City sits at 28%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-0, which has a 15% probability. Colchester's expected goals are 0.89, slightly higher than Exeter City's 0.81.
However, the match could see different outcomes if both teams manage to score, which our model suggests has a 34% chance. Additionally, the likelihood of Over 2.5 goals is only 24%. Colchester's recent form shows 5 games without a win, while Exeter City has won 2 of their last 5 matches. This contrast in form could impact the final result.
Colchester vs Exeter City: model vs market
| Source | Colchester | Draw | Exeter City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 37% | 29% |
| Market | 46% | 26% | 28% |
| Published | 43% | 29% | 28% |
| Edge | -12% | +10% | +2% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.07, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Colchester vs Exeter City odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Colchester, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colchester | 2.03 | 2.01 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.50 | +0.00 |
| Exeter City | 3.34 | 3.32 | -0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Colchester and Exeter City expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.70
- Attack rating (Colchester / Exeter City)
- 0.91 / 0.66
- Defence rating (Colchester / Exeter City)
- 1.05 / 0.71
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Colchester vs Exeter City score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Colchester goals. Columns: Exeter City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Colchester vs Exeter City goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 34%
- No goals (0–0)
- 20%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Colchester vs Exeter City
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Colchester | 43% | 2.33 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.46 | |
| Exeter City | 28% | 3.55 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 24% | 4.11 |
| Under 2.5 | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 34% | 2.93 |
| No | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Colchester or draw) | 72% | 1.39 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Exeter City) | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Handicap -1 | Colchester win by 2+ | 12% | 8.04 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Colchester and Exeter City recent form
Colchester
0W 3D 3L
Exeter City
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Colchester at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Exeter City away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-4
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Colchester at home only, Exeter City away only.
Colchester vs Exeter City head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Colchester 2 · draws 3 · Exeter City 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-15 | Exeter City | 2-0 | Colchester | League Two |
| 2021-11-23 | Colchester | 3-1 | Exeter City | League Two |
| 2021-02-23 | Colchester | 1-2 | Exeter City | League Two |
| 2020-11-24 | Exeter City | 6-1 | Colchester | League Two |
| 2020-06-22 | Exeter City | 3-1 | Colchester | League Two |
| 2020-06-18 | Colchester | 1-0 | Exeter City | League Two |
| 2020-01-25 | Exeter City | 0-0 | Colchester | League Two |
| 2019-12-29 | Colchester | 2-2 | Exeter City | League Two |
| 2019-03-16 | Exeter City | 3-0 | Colchester | League Two |
| 2018-11-24 | Colchester | 1-1 | Exeter City | League Two |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Oldham v Cheltenham — match page 2026-10-17
- Port Vale vs Chesterfield — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Swindon Town vs Walsall 2026-10-17
- Accrington ST v Gillingham — match page 2026-10-17
- Crewe vs Rochdale 2026-10-17
- Grimsby v Northampton — match page 2026-10-17
- Newport County vs York — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Tranmere vs Barnet 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Colchester, previous: Newport County vs Colchester prediction
- Colchester, next: Chesterfield – Colchester, 2026-10-20
- Exeter City, previous: Shrewsbury v Exeter City analysis
- Exeter City, next: Exeter City vs Crewe: odds and pick