Exeter City vs Crewe preview
Exeter City faces Crewe with 29% chances of a win for Exeter, 38% for a draw, and 33% for Crewe. The most likely scoreline is 0-0 at 22%. Both teams have struggled to score, with expected goals at 0.74 for Exeter and 0.81 for Crewe, which suggests a low-scoring match.
While the model indicates a low probability for Over 2.5 goals at 21% and both teams to score at 30%, factors such as defensive errors or set pieces could lead to a different outcome. Recent form shows Exeter with 2 wins and Crewe with 2 wins, indicating that either team could find a way to secure a goal.
Exeter City vs Crewe: model vs market
| Source | Exeter City | Draw | Crewe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29% | 38% | 33% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 29% | 38% | 33% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Exeter City and Crewe expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.56
- Attack rating (Exeter City / Crewe)
- 0.66 / 0.99
- Defence rating (Exeter City / Crewe)
- 0.71 / 0.81
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Exeter City vs Crewe score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Exeter City goals. Columns: Crewe goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Exeter City vs Crewe goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 30%
- No goals (0–0)
- 22%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Exeter City vs Crewe
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Exeter City | 29% | 3.47 |
| Draw | 38% | 2.60 | |
| Crewe | 33% | 3.05 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 21% | 4.86 |
| Under 2.5 | 79% | 1.26 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 30% | 3.28 |
| No | 70% | 1.44 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Exeter City or draw) | 67% | 1.49 |
| 12 (either side) | 62% | 1.62 | |
| X2 (draw or Crewe) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| Handicap -1 | Crewe win by 2+ | 11% | 8.93 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Exeter City and Crewe recent form
Exeter City
2W 2D 2L
Crewe
2W 4D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Exeter City at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-0
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 0.20
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
Crewe away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-0
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 0.40
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Exeter City at home only, Crewe away only.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Rotherham vs Newport County — team news & stats 2026-10-20
- Bristol Rovers vs Salford City 2026-10-20
- Northampton v Tranmere — match page 2026-10-20
- Rochdale vs Grimsby — team news & stats 2026-10-20
- Walsall vs Oldham 2026-10-20
- Chesterfield v Colchester — match page 2026-10-20
- Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury — team news & stats 2026-10-20
- Barnet v Swindon Town — match page 2026-10-20
Before and after this match
- Exeter City, previous: Colchester v Exeter City analysis
- Crewe, previous: Crewe vs Rochdale: odds and pick