Newport County vs York preview
In the League Two fixture between Newport County and York, the 1X2 probabilities show Newport County at 29%, a draw at 26%, and York at 45%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring 8% of the time according to our model.
Both teams to score has a probability of 55%, while Over 2.5 goals sits at 49%. Newport County's expected goals are 1.35, slightly higher than York's 1.27. However, if Newport County's recent form does not improve, this could affect their ability to secure a result.
Newport County vs York: model vs market
| Source | Newport County | Draw | York |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38% | 29% | 34% |
| Market | 26% | 26% | 49% |
| Published | 29% | 26% | 45% |
| Edge | +12% | +3% | -15% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.96, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Newport County vs York odds movement
Median bookmaker price on York, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newport County | 3.60 | 3.60 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.64 | 3.62 | -0.02 |
| York | 1.91 | 1.90 | -0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Newport County and York expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.62
- Attack rating (Newport County / York)
- 0.95 / 1.30
- Defence rating (Newport County / York)
- 0.84 / 1.02
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Newport County vs York score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Newport County goals. Columns: York goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Newport County vs York goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Newport County vs York
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Newport County | 29% | 3.49 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.79 | |
| York | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.05 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.83 |
| No | 45% | 2.20 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Newport County or draw) | 55% | 1.82 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or York) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| Handicap -1 | York win by 2+ | 15% | 6.56 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Newport County and York recent form
Newport County
2W 3D 1L
York
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Newport County at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-0
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 65% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
York away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Newport County at home only, York away only.
Newport County vs York head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Newport County 5 · draws 1 · York 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-01-16 | York | 0-1 | Newport County | League Two |
| 2015-09-05 | Newport County | 0-3 | York | League Two |
| 2015-04-25 | York | 0-2 | Newport County | League Two |
| 2014-10-11 | Newport County | 3-1 | York | League Two |
| 2014-04-26 | York | 1-0 | Newport County | League Two |
| 2013-10-19 | Newport County | 3-0 | York | League Two |
| 2012-05-12 | Newport County | 0-2 | York | FA Trophy |
| 2012-04-14 | York | 1-1 | Newport County | National League |
| 2012-04-03 | Newport County | 2-1 | York | National League |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Oldham v Cheltenham — match page 2026-10-17
- Port Vale vs Chesterfield — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Swindon Town vs Walsall 2026-10-17
- Accrington ST v Gillingham — match page 2026-10-17
- Colchester vs Exeter City — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Crewe vs Rochdale 2026-10-17
- Grimsby v Northampton — match page 2026-10-17
- Tranmere vs Barnet 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Newport County, previous: Newport County vs Colchester prediction
- Newport County, next: Rotherham vs Newport County prediction
- York, previous: York vs Northampton: odds and pick
- York, next: York v Accrington ST analysis