Tranmere vs Barnet preview
In the League Two match between Tranmere and Barnet, the 1X2 probabilities show Barnet at 55%, while Tranmere is at 24%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, with a 9% chance. The expected goals indicate Tranmere at 1.52 and Barnet at 2.33, suggesting a strong performance from Barnet.
Both teams to score has a 71% likelihood, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 74%. However, Tranmere's recent form shows only 1 win in their last 5 matches, which could impact their performance. Barnet, on the other hand, has not lost in their last 6 games, making them the favorites in this matchup.
Tranmere vs Barnet: model vs market
| Source | Tranmere | Draw | Barnet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24% | 21% | 55% |
| Market | 28% | 26% | 46% |
| Published | 27% | 25% | 49% |
| Edge | -4% | -5% | +9% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.33 vs 1.52.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Barnet below the model: +8.7 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.03, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Tranmere vs Barnet odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Barnet, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tranmere | 3.40 | 3.36 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 3.56 | 3.56 | +0.00 |
| Barnet | 2.00 | 2.00 | -0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Tranmere and Barnet expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.85
- Attack rating (Tranmere / Barnet)
- 0.99 / 1.79
- Defence rating (Tranmere / Barnet)
- 1.12 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Tranmere vs Barnet score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Tranmere goals. Columns: Barnet goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Tranmere vs Barnet goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 71%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Tranmere vs Barnet
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tranmere | 27% | 3.76 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.03 | |
| Barnet | 49% | 2.06 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.35 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.83 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71% | 1.40 |
| No | 29% | 3.48 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Tranmere or draw) | 51% | 1.95 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Barnet) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| Handicap -1 | Barnet win by 2+ | 35% | 2.85 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Tranmere and Barnet recent form
Tranmere
1W 3D 2L
Barnet
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Tranmere at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-0
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Barnet away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Tranmere at home only, Barnet away only.
Tranmere vs Barnet head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Tranmere 0 · draws 0 · Barnet 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-27 | Barnet | 1-0 | Tranmere | League Two |
| 2025-10-11 | Tranmere | 0-2 | Barnet | League Two |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Oldham v Cheltenham — match page 2026-10-17
- Port Vale vs Chesterfield — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Swindon Town vs Walsall 2026-10-17
- Accrington ST v Gillingham — match page 2026-10-17
- Colchester vs Exeter City — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Crewe vs Rochdale 2026-10-17
- Grimsby v Northampton — match page 2026-10-17
- Newport County vs York — team news & stats 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Tranmere, previous: Tranmere v Rochdale analysis
- Tranmere, next: Northampton v Tranmere analysis
- Barnet, previous: Bristol Rovers vs Barnet: odds and pick
- Barnet, next: Barnet vs Swindon Town prediction