Cheltenham vs Fleetwood Town preview
In the League Two match between Cheltenham and Fleetwood Town, the 1X2 probabilities show Fleetwood Town at 40%, Cheltenham at 31%, and a draw at 28%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which aligns with expected goals of 1.23 for Cheltenham and 1.42 for Fleetwood Town.
Both teams to score stands at 55%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 49%. Cheltenham's recent form includes two losses followed by a win and two draws, while Fleetwood Town has one win and four games without a victory. This recent form could influence the outcome, making the predictions less certain. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Cheltenham vs Fleetwood Town: model vs market
| Source | Cheltenham | Draw | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 28% | 40% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 31% | 28% | 40% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Cheltenham and Fleetwood Town expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.65
- Attack rating (Cheltenham / Fleetwood Town)
- 1.02 / 0.92
- Defence rating (Cheltenham / Fleetwood Town)
- 1.33 / 0.87
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cheltenham vs Fleetwood Town score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cheltenham goals. Columns: Fleetwood Town goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cheltenham vs Fleetwood Town goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cheltenham vs Fleetwood Town
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cheltenham | 31% | 3.20 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.52 | |
| Fleetwood Town | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.98 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.82 |
| No | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cheltenham or draw) | 60% | 1.68 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Fleetwood Town) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| Handicap -1 | Fleetwood Town win by 2+ | 20% | 5.05 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Cheltenham and Fleetwood Town recent form
Cheltenham
2W 2D 2L
Fleetwood Town
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cheltenham at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fleetwood Town away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cheltenham at home only, Fleetwood Town away only.
Cheltenham vs Fleetwood Town head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Cheltenham 1 · draws 1 · Fleetwood Town 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | Fleetwood Town | 2-2 | Cheltenham | League Two |
| 2025-10-04 | Cheltenham | 2-0 | Fleetwood Town | League Two |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Rotherham vs Newport County — team news & stats 2026-10-20
- Bristol Rovers vs Salford City 2026-10-20
- Northampton v Tranmere — match page 2026-10-20
- Rochdale vs Grimsby — team news & stats 2026-10-20
- Walsall vs Oldham 2026-10-20
- Chesterfield v Colchester — match page 2026-10-20
- Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury — team news & stats 2026-10-20
- Exeter City vs Crewe 2026-10-20
Before and after this match
- Cheltenham, previous: Oldham v Cheltenham analysis
- Fleetwood Town, previous: Fleetwood Town vs Rotherham prediction
- Fleetwood Town, next: Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal: odds and pick