Gillingham vs Port Vale preview
In the League Two match between Gillingham and Port Vale, Gillingham has a 56% chance to win, while Port Vale stands at 16%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 15% of the time according to our model. Gillingham's expected goals are 1.53, compared to Port Vale's 0.71, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
However, there are factors that could affect this prediction. The probability for Over 2.5 goals is 39%, and both teams to score is at 41%. This suggests that while Gillingham is favored, Port Vale could still find a way to score, which may lead to a different outcome than anticipated.
Gillingham vs Port Vale: model vs market
| Source | Gillingham | Draw | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 28% | 16% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 56% | 28% | 16% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.53 vs 0.71.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Gillingham and Port Vale expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.24
- Attack rating (Gillingham / Port Vale)
- 1.15 / 0.60
- Defence rating (Gillingham / Port Vale)
- 1.02 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Gillingham vs Port Vale score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Gillingham goals. Columns: Port Vale goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Gillingham vs Port Vale goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 41%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Gillingham vs Port Vale
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gillingham | 56% | 1.79 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.57 | |
| Port Vale | 16% | 6.23 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39% | 2.58 |
| Under 2.5 | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41% | 2.44 |
| No | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Gillingham or draw) | 84% | 1.19 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Port Vale) | 44% | 2.27 | |
| Handicap -1 | Gillingham win by 2+ | 30% | 3.32 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Gillingham and Port Vale recent form
Gillingham
4W 1D 1L
Port Vale
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Gillingham at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Port Vale away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They average 0.8 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Gillingham at home only, Port Vale away only.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Rotherham vs Newport County — team news & stats 2026-10-20
- Bristol Rovers vs Salford City 2026-10-20
- Northampton v Tranmere — match page 2026-10-20
- Rochdale vs Grimsby — team news & stats 2026-10-20
- Walsall vs Oldham 2026-10-20
- Chesterfield v Colchester — match page 2026-10-20
- Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury — team news & stats 2026-10-20
- Exeter City vs Crewe 2026-10-20
Before and after this match
- Gillingham, previous: Accrington ST – Gillingham, 2026-10-17
- Port Vale, previous: Port Vale vs Chesterfield: odds and pick