Salford City vs Crawley Town preview
In the League Two fixture, Salford City has a 66% chance to win against Crawley Town, who has only a 12% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which aligns with Salford's expected goals of 2.05 compared to Crawley's 0.78. Salford’s recent form shows 5 wins and 1 draw in their last 6 matches, while Crawley Town has struggled with 1 draw and 5 losses.
However, the match could see a different outcome if Crawley Town manages to improve their performance, as they have drawn in 2 of their last 6 games. Additionally, with a 54% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance for both teams to score, there is potential for surprises in this matchup.
Salford City vs Crawley Town: model vs market
| Source | Salford City | Draw | Crawley Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66% | 22% | 12% |
| Market | 65% | 20% | 15% |
| Published | 65% | 20% | 14% |
| Edge | +1% | +2% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.05 vs 0.78.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.45, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Salford City vs Crawley Town odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Salford City, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Salford City | 1.40 | 1.40 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.80 | 4.70 | -0.10 |
| Crawley Town | 6.35 | 6.05 | -0.30 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Salford City and Crawley Town expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.84
- Attack rating (Salford City / Crawley Town)
- 1.16 / 0.84
- Defence rating (Salford City / Crawley Town)
- 0.80 / 1.27
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Salford City vs Crawley Town score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Salford City goals. Columns: Crawley Town goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Salford City vs Crawley Town goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Salford City vs Crawley Town
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Salford City | 65% | 1.53 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.98 | |
| Crawley Town | 14% | 6.92 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.07 |
| No | 52% | 1.94 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Salford City or draw) | 86% | 1.17 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| X2 (draw or Crawley Town) | 35% | 2.90 | |
| Handicap -1 | Salford City win by 2+ | 42% | 2.37 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Salford City and Crawley Town recent form
Salford City
5W 1D 0L
Crawley Town
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Salford City at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-1
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.40
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
Crawley Town away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Salford City at home only, Crawley Town away only.
Salford City vs Crawley Town head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Salford City 3 · draws 4 · Crawley Town 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Crawley Town | 0-0 | Salford City | League Two |
| 2025-11-29 | Salford City | 4-3 | Crawley Town | League Two |
| 2024-01-13 | Crawley Town | 0-1 | Salford City | League Two |
| 2023-08-12 | Salford City | 1-1 | Crawley Town | League Two |
| 2023-01-28 | Crawley Town | 3-2 | Salford City | League Two |
| 2022-09-03 | Salford City | 2-2 | Crawley Town | League Two |
| 2022-03-29 | Salford City | 2-1 | Crawley Town | League Two |
| 2021-08-17 | Crawley Town | 2-1 | Salford City | League Two |
| 2021-03-09 | Crawley Town | 1-0 | Salford City | League Two |
| 2020-10-24 | Salford City | 1-1 | Crawley Town | League Two |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Oldham v Cheltenham — match page 2026-10-17
- Port Vale vs Chesterfield — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Swindon Town vs Walsall 2026-10-17
- Accrington ST v Gillingham — match page 2026-10-17
- Colchester vs Exeter City — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Crewe vs Rochdale 2026-10-17
- Grimsby v Northampton — match page 2026-10-17
- Newport County vs York — team news & stats 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Salford City, previous: Cheltenham – Salford City, 2026-10-10
- Salford City, next: Bristol Rovers – Salford City, 2026-10-20
- Crawley Town, previous: Crawley Town vs Chesterfield: odds and pick
- Crawley Town, next: Crawley Town v Shrewsbury analysis