Rochdale vs Accrington ST preview
Rochdale faces Accrington ST with 37% probability for a home win and 36% for an away victory. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs 8% of the time in our model. Both teams to score stands at 59%, indicating a strong chance for goals from both sides.
However, the confidence grade is C, suggesting uncertainty in the outcome. Recent form shows Rochdale with a record of L-D-W-W-W-D, while Accrington ST has W-D-W-D-D-L. With expected goals at 1.44 for Rochdale and 1.42 for Accrington ST, the match could easily sway in either direction, impacting the predicted scoreline and goal outcomes.
Rochdale vs Accrington ST: model vs market
| Source | Rochdale | Draw | Accrington ST |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 28% | 35% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 37% | 28% | 35% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Rochdale and Accrington ST expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.79
- Attack rating (Rochdale / Accrington ST)
- 1.04 / 1.06
- Defence rating (Rochdale / Accrington ST)
- 1.11 / 0.98
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Rochdale vs Accrington ST score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Rochdale goals. Columns: Accrington ST goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Rochdale vs Accrington ST goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Rochdale vs Accrington ST
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rochdale | 37% | 2.68 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.61 | |
| Accrington ST | 35% | 2.86 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.73 |
| No | 42% | 2.37 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Rochdale or draw) | 65% | 1.54 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Accrington ST) | 63% | 1.60 | |
| Handicap -1 | Rochdale win by 2+ | 18% | 5.53 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Rochdale and Accrington ST recent form
Rochdale
3W 2D 1L
Accrington ST
2W 4D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Rochdale at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Accrington ST away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Rochdale at home only, Accrington ST away only.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Bristol Rovers vs Swindon Town — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Rotherham vs Shrewsbury — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Chesterfield v Crewe — match page 2026-10-24
- Gillingham vs Grimsby — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Crawley Town vs Tranmere 2026-10-24
- Exeter City v Fleetwood Town — match page 2026-10-24
- Barnet vs Oldham — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- York vs Port Vale 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Rochdale, previous: Rochdale vs Grimsby: odds and pick
- Rochdale, next: Fleetwood Town – Rochdale, 2026-11-07
- Accrington ST, previous: York v Accrington ST analysis
- Accrington ST, next: Accrington ST vs Wycombe prediction