Gillingham vs Grimsby preview
Gillingham faces Grimsby with a 34% chance of winning compared to Grimsby’s 39%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, indicating Grimsby’s advantage. Gillingham's expected goals stand at 1.67, while Grimsby has 1.17, suggesting a competitive match.
Both teams to score has a probability of 57%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 54%, highlighting potential for an open game. However, Gillingham's recent form shows inconsistency with 3 wins in their last 6 matches, while Grimsby has 2 wins in their last 6. Gillingham has not won against Grimsby in their last 2 meetings, which could influence the outcome.
Gillingham vs Grimsby: model vs market
| Source | Gillingham | Draw | Grimsby |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 26% | 25% |
| Market | 30% | 28% | 43% |
| Published | 34% | 27% | 38% |
| Edge | +19% | -1% | -18% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.20, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Gillingham vs Grimsby odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Grimsby, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gillingham | 3.11 | 3.11 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.35 | 3.35 | +0.00 |
| Grimsby | 2.15 | 2.15 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Gillingham and Grimsby expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.88
- Attack rating (Gillingham / Grimsby)
- 1.09 / 0.95
- Defence rating (Gillingham / Grimsby)
- 1.05 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Gillingham vs Grimsby score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Gillingham goals. Columns: Grimsby goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Gillingham vs Grimsby goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Gillingham vs Grimsby
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gillingham | 34% | 2.91 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.68 | |
| Grimsby | 38% | 2.60 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.82 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.74 |
| No | 42% | 2.36 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Gillingham or draw) | 62% | 1.62 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Grimsby) | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Handicap -1 | Grimsby win by 2+ | 10% | 9.55 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Gillingham and Grimsby recent form
Gillingham
2W 2D 2L
Grimsby
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Gillingham at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Grimsby away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-4-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Gillingham at home only, Grimsby away only.
Gillingham vs Grimsby head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Gillingham 0 · draws 0 · Grimsby 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Gillingham | 1-4 | Grimsby | League Two |
| 2025-10-18 | Grimsby | 1-0 | Gillingham | League Two |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Bristol Rovers vs Swindon Town — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Rotherham vs Shrewsbury — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Rochdale vs Accrington ST 2026-10-24
- Chesterfield v Crewe — match page 2026-10-24
- Crawley Town vs Tranmere 2026-10-24
- Exeter City v Fleetwood Town — match page 2026-10-24
- Barnet vs Oldham — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- York vs Port Vale 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Gillingham, previous: Gillingham vs Port Vale: odds and pick
- Gillingham, next: Gillingham v Barrow analysis
- Grimsby, previous: Rochdale vs Grimsby: odds and pick
- Grimsby, next: Stafford Rangers v Grimsby analysis