Cheltenham vs Newport County preview
In the League Two match between Cheltenham and Newport County, the 1X2 probabilities show Cheltenham at 37% and Newport County at 36%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, with a 7% chance. Cheltenham's recent form includes 3 losses and 1 win in their last 5 matches, while Newport County has 3 draws and 2 wins in the same period.
The expected goals indicate Cheltenham at 1.17 and Newport County at 1.63, suggesting a competitive match. There is a 53% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance for both teams to score. However, if Cheltenham's form does not improve, their chances of winning may diminish.
Cheltenham vs Newport County: model vs market
| Source | Cheltenham | Draw | Newport County |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 25% | 42% |
| Market | 40% | 28% | 32% |
| Published | 39% | 27% | 34% |
| Edge | -8% | -3% | +10% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.32, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Cheltenham vs Newport County odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Cheltenham, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheltenham | 2.28 | 2.28 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.32 | 3.32 | +0.00 |
| Newport County | 2.90 | 2.90 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cheltenham and Newport County expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.27
- Attack rating (Cheltenham / Newport County)
- 1.20 / 1.00
- Defence rating (Cheltenham / Newport County)
- 1.49 / 0.91
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cheltenham vs Newport County score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cheltenham goals. Columns: Newport County goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cheltenham vs Newport County goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 66%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cheltenham vs Newport County
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cheltenham | 39% | 2.59 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.69 | |
| Newport County | 34% | 2.91 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.73 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66% | 1.53 |
| No | 34% | 2.90 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cheltenham or draw) | 66% | 1.52 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Newport County) | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cheltenham win by 2+ | 16% | 6.21 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Cheltenham and Newport County recent form
Cheltenham
2W 1D 3L
Newport County
2W 4D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cheltenham at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Newport County away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- 62% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cheltenham at home only, Newport County away only.
Cheltenham vs Newport County head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Cheltenham 6 · draws 2 · Newport County 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Cheltenham | 1-0 | Newport County | League Two |
| 2025-10-18 | Newport County | 0-2 | Cheltenham | League Two |
| 2025-02-22 | Newport County | 0-3 | Cheltenham | League Two |
| 2024-09-03 | Newport County | 1-2 | Cheltenham | EFL Trophy |
| 2024-08-10 | Cheltenham | 3-2 | Newport County | League Two |
| 2023-10-10 | Cheltenham | 0-2 | Newport County | EFL Trophy |
| 2023-07-29 | Newport County | 1-1 | Cheltenham | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2021-05-01 | Newport County | 1-0 | Cheltenham | League Two |
| 2021-01-19 | Cheltenham | 1-1 | Newport County | League Two |
| 2020-09-08 | Newport County | 0-1 | Cheltenham | EFL Trophy |
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Before and after this match
- Cheltenham, previous: Cheltenham – Fleetwood Town, 2026-10-20
- Cheltenham, next: Cheltenham – FC Halifax Town, 2026-11-07
- Newport County, previous: Rotherham vs Newport County prediction
- Newport County, next: Newport County v Walsall analysis