Tranmere vs Cheltenham preview
In the League Two fixture between Tranmere and Cheltenham, the 1X2 probabilities show Tranmere at 44%, Cheltenham at 30%, and a draw at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance according to our model. Tranmere has an expected goals figure of 1.70, while Cheltenham sits at 1.36.
Tranmere's recent form includes 2 draws and 3 losses, while Cheltenham has won 3 of their last 6 matches. Despite Tranmere's stronger head-to-head record with 2 wins against Cheltenham's 0, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty. Factors like Cheltenham's recent winning streak could challenge the expected outcomes, particularly for Over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams to score at 62%.
Tranmere vs Cheltenham: model vs market
| Source | Tranmere | Draw | Cheltenham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 26% | 30% |
| Market | 50% | 26% | 24% |
| Published | 49% | 26% | 26% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 1.36.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.91, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Tranmere vs Cheltenham odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Tranmere, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tranmere | 1.85 | 1.85 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.62 | 3.62 | +0.00 |
| Cheltenham | 3.80 | 3.79 | -0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Tranmere and Cheltenham expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.06
- Attack rating (Tranmere / Cheltenham)
- 0.93 / 1.18
- Defence rating (Tranmere / Cheltenham)
- 0.99 / 1.30
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Tranmere vs Cheltenham score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Tranmere goals. Columns: Cheltenham goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Tranmere vs Cheltenham goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Tranmere vs Cheltenham
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tranmere | 49% | 2.06 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.90 | |
| Cheltenham | 26% | 3.88 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.44 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.62 |
| No | 38% | 2.62 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Tranmere or draw) | 74% | 1.35 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Cheltenham) | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Handicap -1 | Tranmere win by 2+ | 24% | 4.16 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Tranmere and Cheltenham recent form
Tranmere
1W 3D 2L
Cheltenham
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Tranmere at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cheltenham away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-3
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Tranmere at home only, Cheltenham away only.
Tranmere vs Cheltenham head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Tranmere 2 · draws 0 · Cheltenham 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | Cheltenham | 1-3 | Tranmere | League Two |
| 2025-11-15 | Tranmere | 3-2 | Cheltenham | League Two |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Fleetwood Town vs Bristol Rovers — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Oldham vs Crawley Town 2026-10-31
- Shrewsbury v Gillingham — match page 2026-10-31
- Swindon Town vs Rotherham — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Accrington ST vs Northampton 2026-10-31
- Colchester v Walsall — match page 2026-10-31
- Crewe vs Barnet — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Salford City v Exeter City — match page 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Tranmere, previous: Crawley Town vs Tranmere: odds and pick
- Tranmere, next: Barnet vs Tranmere: odds and pick
- Cheltenham, previous: Cheltenham v Newport County analysis
- Cheltenham, next: Cheltenham – FC Halifax Town, 2026-11-07