Rotherham vs Shrewsbury preview
In the League Two fixture between Rotherham and Shrewsbury, the 1X2 probabilities show Shrewsbury at 39%, Rotherham at 34%, and a draw at 28%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance according to our model.
Both teams to score has a 58% probability, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 53%. Rotherham's expected goals are 1.36, while Shrewsbury's are slightly higher at 1.46. The recent form indicates Rotherham has struggled with D-L-L-L-D-W, while Shrewsbury is in better shape with W-W-L-W-D-D. However, Rotherham's home advantage could impact the outcome.
Rotherham vs Shrewsbury: model vs market
| Source | Rotherham | Draw | Shrewsbury |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 28% | 39% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 34% | 28% | 39% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Rotherham and Shrewsbury expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.82
- Attack rating (Rotherham / Shrewsbury)
- 0.91 / 0.93
- Defence rating (Rotherham / Shrewsbury)
- 1.34 / 1.06
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Rotherham vs Shrewsbury score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Rotherham goals. Columns: Shrewsbury goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Rotherham vs Shrewsbury goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Rotherham vs Shrewsbury
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rotherham | 34% | 2.96 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.63 | |
| Shrewsbury | 39% | 2.59 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.15 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.72 |
| No | 42% | 2.39 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Rotherham or draw) | 61% | 1.63 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Shrewsbury) | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Handicap -1 | Shrewsbury win by 2+ | 19% | 5.25 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Rotherham and Shrewsbury recent form
Rotherham
1W 2D 3L
Shrewsbury
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Rotherham at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-4-1
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Shrewsbury away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-3
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.83
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Rotherham at home only, Shrewsbury away only.
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Before and after this match
- Rotherham, previous: Rotherham vs Newport County prediction
- Rotherham, next: Bromley vs Rotherham prediction
- Shrewsbury, previous: Crawley Town v Shrewsbury analysis
- Shrewsbury, next: Eastleigh vs Shrewsbury: odds and pick