Exeter City vs Fleetwood Town preview
Exeter City faces Fleetwood Town with a 37% chance of winning compared to Fleetwood's 32%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, occurring 18% of the time according to our model. Exeter's expected goals stand at 0.92, while Fleetwood's is lower at 0.65, indicating a potential struggle for the visitors to find the net.
However, there are factors that could alter this prediction. With both teams to score at only 30% and Over 2.5 goals at 21%, the match could easily see fewer goals than expected. Fleetwood's recent form shows three losses in their last five matches, which could impact their performance on the day.
Exeter City vs Fleetwood Town: model vs market
| Source | Exeter City | Draw | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 38% | 24% |
| Market | 36% | 29% | 35% |
| Published | 37% | 31% | 32% |
| Edge | +3% | +9% | -11% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Exeter City below the model: +2.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.65, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Exeter City vs Fleetwood Town odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Exeter City, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exeter City | 2.55 | 2.55 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.17 | 3.17 | +0.00 |
| Fleetwood Town | 2.63 | 2.63 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Exeter City and Fleetwood Town expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.57
- Attack rating (Exeter City / Fleetwood Town)
- 0.66 / 1.03
- Defence rating (Exeter City / Fleetwood Town)
- 0.54 / 1.00
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Exeter City vs Fleetwood Town score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Exeter City goals. Columns: Fleetwood Town goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Exeter City vs Fleetwood Town goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 30%
- No goals (0–0)
- 22%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Exeter City vs Fleetwood Town
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Exeter City | 37% | 2.72 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.21 | |
| Fleetwood Town | 32% | 3.12 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 21% | 4.77 |
| Under 2.5 | 79% | 1.27 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 30% | 3.32 |
| No | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Exeter City or draw) | 68% | 1.47 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| X2 (draw or Fleetwood Town) | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Handicap -1 | Exeter City win by 2+ | 15% | 6.84 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Exeter City and Fleetwood Town recent form
Exeter City
3W 2D 1L
Fleetwood Town
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Exeter City at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.17
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 12 matches.
Fleetwood Town away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-3
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.83
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Exeter City at home only, Fleetwood Town away only.
Exeter City vs Fleetwood Town head-to-head
Last 8 meetings: Exeter City 3 · draws 4 · Fleetwood Town 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-02-24 | Exeter City | 1-1 | Fleetwood Town | League One |
| 2023-11-11 | Fleetwood Town | 3-0 | Exeter City | League One |
| 2023-04-01 | Fleetwood Town | 2-2 | Exeter City | League One |
| 2022-10-22 | Exeter City | 2-1 | Fleetwood Town | League One |
| 2014-03-22 | Exeter City | 3-0 | Fleetwood Town | League Two |
| 2013-09-28 | Fleetwood Town | 1-2 | Exeter City | League Two |
| 2013-03-09 | Fleetwood Town | 0-0 | Exeter City | League Two |
| 2012-11-10 | Exeter City | 2-2 | Fleetwood Town | League Two |
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Before and after this match
- Exeter City, previous: Exeter City vs Crewe: odds and pick
- Exeter City, next: Huddersfield v Exeter City analysis
- Fleetwood Town, previous: Cheltenham – Fleetwood Town, 2026-10-20
- Fleetwood Town, next: Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal: odds and pick