Salford City vs Exeter City preview
Salford City faces Exeter City with a 39% chance of winning compared to Exeter's 24%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 17% of the time in our model. Salford's expected goals stand at 0.99, while Exeter's is lower at 0.72.
However, the match could deviate from this prediction. Both teams to score has a 33% probability, indicating that there is a chance for goals from both sides. Additionally, the confidence grade is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the forecast. With only a 24% chance of Exeter winning, Salford remains the stronger side, but surprises can happen in football.
Salford City vs Exeter City: model vs market
| Source | Salford City | Draw | Exeter City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 34% | 24% |
| Market | 58% | 24% | 19% |
| Published | 54% | 26% | 20% |
| Edge | -4% | +3% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.12 vs 0.77.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.67, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Salford City vs Exeter City odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Salford City, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Salford City | 1.63 | 1.61 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.83 | 3.95 | +0.12 |
| Exeter City | 4.80 | 4.97 | +0.17 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Salford City and Exeter City expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.89
- Attack rating (Salford City / Exeter City)
- 1.39 / 0.75
- Defence rating (Salford City / Exeter City)
- 0.88 / 0.57
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Salford City vs Exeter City score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Salford City goals. Columns: Exeter City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Salford City vs Exeter City goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 37%
- No goals (0–0)
- 16%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Salford City vs Exeter City
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Salford City | 54% | 1.86 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.83 | |
| Exeter City | 20% | 5.01 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 29% | 3.41 |
| Under 2.5 | 71% | 1.41 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37% | 2.67 |
| No | 63% | 1.60 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Salford City or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Exeter City) | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Handicap -1 | Salford City win by 2+ | 18% | 5.46 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Salford City and Exeter City recent form
Salford City
6W 0D 0L
Exeter City
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Salford City at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-0-1
- Win rate
- 83%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 8 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
Exeter City away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-4
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 12 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Salford City at home only, Exeter City away only.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Fleetwood Town vs Bristol Rovers — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Oldham vs Crawley Town 2026-10-31
- Shrewsbury v Gillingham — match page 2026-10-31
- Swindon Town vs Rotherham — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Accrington ST vs Northampton 2026-10-31
- Colchester v Walsall — match page 2026-10-31
- Crewe vs Barnet — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Tranmere vs Cheltenham 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Salford City, previous: Walsall vs Salford City: odds and pick
- Salford City, next: Carlisle vs Salford City prediction
- Exeter City, previous: Exeter City vs Fleetwood Town prediction
- Exeter City, next: Huddersfield v Exeter City analysis