Northampton vs Colchester preview
Northampton faces Colchester with a 42% chance of winning according to our model. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 14% of the time in our projections. Colchester's recent form shows they have drawn four of their last five matches, while Northampton has a mixed record with two wins and three draws in their last six.
Both teams to score stands at 37%, and Over 2.5 goals is at just 27%. This suggests a low-scoring match is more likely. However, if either team improves their attacking performance, the expected goals of 0.95 for Northampton and 0.86 for Colchester could lead to a different outcome. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Northampton vs Colchester: model vs market
| Source | Northampton | Draw | Colchester |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 37% | 31% |
| Market | 44% | 28% | 27% |
| Published | 41% | 31% | 28% |
| Edge | -12% | +8% | +3% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.12, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Northampton vs Colchester odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Northampton, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northampton | 2.10 | 2.10 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.26 | 3.26 | +0.00 |
| Colchester | 3.40 | 3.40 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Northampton and Colchester expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.68
- Attack rating (Northampton / Colchester)
- 0.64 / 0.78
- Defence rating (Northampton / Colchester)
- 0.90 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Northampton vs Colchester score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Northampton goals. Columns: Colchester goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Northampton vs Colchester goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 34%
- No goals (0–0)
- 20%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Northampton vs Colchester
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Northampton | 41% | 2.42 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.27 | |
| Colchester | 28% | 3.55 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 24% | 4.22 |
| Under 2.5 | 76% | 1.31 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 34% | 2.98 |
| No | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Northampton or draw) | 72% | 1.39 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.44 | |
| X2 (draw or Colchester) | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Handicap -1 | Northampton win by 2+ | 11% | 8.74 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Northampton and Colchester recent form
Northampton
2W 1D 3L
Colchester
0W 5D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Northampton at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.40
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Colchester away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.83
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Northampton at home only, Colchester away only.
Northampton vs Colchester head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Northampton 7 · draws 0 · Colchester 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-02-25 | Colchester | 0-1 | Northampton | League Two |
| 2022-07-30 | Northampton | 3-2 | Colchester | League Two |
| 2022-02-19 | Northampton | 3-0 | Colchester | League Two |
| 2021-08-14 | Colchester | 0-1 | Northampton | League Two |
| 2019-08-24 | Colchester | 1-0 | Northampton | League Two |
| 2019-02-02 | Northampton | 0-4 | Colchester | League Two |
| 2018-08-25 | Colchester | 1-2 | Northampton | League Two |
| 2015-09-01 | Northampton | 3-2 | Colchester | EFL Trophy |
| 2012-10-09 | Northampton | 2-1 | Colchester | EFL Trophy |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
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- Chesterfield v Crewe — match page 2026-10-24
- Gillingham vs Grimsby — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Crawley Town vs Tranmere 2026-10-24
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Before and after this match
- Northampton, previous: Northampton v Tranmere analysis
- Northampton, next: York – Northampton, 2026-11-07
- Colchester, previous: Chesterfield – Colchester, 2026-10-20
- Colchester, next: Colchester – Worcester City, 2026-11-07