Chesterfield vs Crewe preview
Chesterfield faces Crewe with a 49% chance of winning compared to Crewe's 25%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 9% of the time in our model. Chesterfield's expected goals sit at 1.35, while Crewe's is slightly lower at 1.21.
Chesterfield's recent form shows 2 wins in their last 5 matches, while Crewe has performed better with 3 wins in the same period. Both teams to score stands at 53%, indicating a decent chance for goals from both sides. However, if Chesterfield's defense falters or Crewe's attack clicks, the match could deviate from the expected outcome.
Chesterfield vs Crewe: model vs market
| Source | Chesterfield | Draw | Crewe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 29% | 32% |
| Market | 53% | 25% | 22% |
| Published | 49% | 26% | 25% |
| Edge | -14% | +4% | +10% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.82, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Chesterfield vs Crewe odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Chesterfield, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield | 1.75 | 1.75 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.71 | 3.71 | +0.00 |
| Crewe | 4.10 | 4.12 | +0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Chesterfield and Crewe expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.56
- Attack rating (Chesterfield / Crewe)
- 1.06 / 1.03
- Defence rating (Chesterfield / Crewe)
- 1.01 / 0.91
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Chesterfield vs Crewe score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Chesterfield goals. Columns: Crewe goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Chesterfield vs Crewe goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Chesterfield vs Crewe
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chesterfield | 49% | 2.03 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.85 | |
| Crewe | 25% | 4.02 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.12 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.88 |
| No | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Chesterfield or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Crewe) | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Handicap -1 | Chesterfield win by 2+ | 18% | 5.44 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Chesterfield and Crewe recent form
Chesterfield
2W 2D 2L
Crewe
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Chesterfield at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
Crewe away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Chesterfield at home only, Crewe away only.
Chesterfield vs Crewe head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Chesterfield 5 · draws 1 · Crewe 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Chesterfield | 2-0 | Crewe | League Two |
| 2025-11-22 | Crewe | 3-3 | Chesterfield | League Two |
| 2025-09-02 | Crewe | 7-1 | Chesterfield | EFL Trophy |
| 2025-03-01 | Chesterfield | 1-3 | Crewe | League Two |
| 2024-08-17 | Crewe | 0-5 | Chesterfield | League Two |
| 2017-12-26 | Chesterfield | 0-2 | Crewe | League Two |
| 2017-09-09 | Crewe | 5-1 | Chesterfield | League Two |
| 2016-11-08 | Crewe | 0-2 | Chesterfield | EFL Trophy |
| 2016-02-20 | Chesterfield | 3-1 | Crewe | League One |
| 2015-10-03 | Crewe | 1-2 | Chesterfield | League One |
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Before and after this match
- Chesterfield, previous: Chesterfield – Colchester, 2026-10-20
- Chesterfield, next: Chesterfield – Yeovil Town, 2026-11-07
- Crewe, previous: Exeter City vs Crewe: odds and pick
- Crewe, next: Crewe – AFC Wimbledon, 2026-11-07