Crawley Town vs Tranmere preview
Crawley Town faces Tranmere with a 38% chance for an away win compared to Crawley’s 34% and a 27% chance for a draw. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.37 for Crawley and 1.46 for Tranmere.
Both teams have struggled recently, with Crawley Town recording four losses and a draw in their last six matches, while Tranmere has a similar record with one win in their last six. The model suggests a 54% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance for both teams to score. However, if Crawley can improve their form, they might challenge Tranmere's recent dominance in their head-to-head encounters.
Crawley Town vs Tranmere: model vs market
| Source | Crawley Town | Draw | Tranmere |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 28% | 39% |
| Market | 31% | 26% | 43% |
| Published | 31% | 27% | 42% |
| Edge | +3% | +1% | -4% |
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.21, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Crawley Town vs Tranmere odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Tranmere, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crawley Town | 3.00 | 3.00 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.50 | +0.00 |
| Tranmere | 2.16 | 2.16 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Crawley Town and Tranmere expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.81
- Attack rating (Crawley Town / Tranmere)
- 0.92 / 0.93
- Defence rating (Crawley Town / Tranmere)
- 1.36 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Crawley Town vs Tranmere score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Crawley Town goals. Columns: Tranmere goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Crawley Town vs Tranmere goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Crawley Town vs Tranmere
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Crawley Town | 31% | 3.18 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.75 | |
| Tranmere | 42% | 2.39 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.72 |
| No | 42% | 2.38 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Crawley Town or draw) | 58% | 1.72 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Tranmere) | 69% | 1.46 | |
| Handicap -1 | Tranmere win by 2+ | 19% | 5.16 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Crawley Town and Tranmere recent form
Crawley Town
0W 1D 5L
Tranmere
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Crawley Town at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.20
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
Tranmere away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-2
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Crawley Town at home only, Tranmere away only.
Crawley Town vs Tranmere head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Crawley Town 4 · draws 0 · Tranmere 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | Tranmere | 2-0 | Crawley Town | League Two |
| 2025-08-23 | Crawley Town | 0-2 | Tranmere | League Two |
| 2024-03-23 | Tranmere | 1-3 | Crawley Town | League Two |
| 2023-09-16 | Crawley Town | 3-2 | Tranmere | League Two |
| 2023-04-15 | Crawley Town | 2-1 | Tranmere | League Two |
| 2023-02-28 | Tranmere | 1-0 | Crawley Town | League Two |
| 2022-01-22 | Crawley Town | 0-1 | Tranmere | League Two |
| 2021-11-06 | Crawley Town | 0-1 | Tranmere | FA Cup |
| 2021-10-02 | Tranmere | 2-1 | Crawley Town | League Two |
| 2021-03-06 | Tranmere | 0-1 | Crawley Town | League Two |
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Before and after this match
- Crawley Town, previous: Crawley Town v Shrewsbury analysis
- Crawley Town, next: Wimborne Town – Crawley Town, 2026-11-07
- Tranmere, previous: Northampton v Tranmere analysis
- Tranmere, next: Barnet vs Tranmere: odds and pick