Bristol Rovers vs Swindon Town preview
Bristol Rovers face Swindon Town with 47% 1X2 probability for a home win and a most likely scoreline of 1-0 at 11%. The expected goals show Bristol Rovers at 1.48 and Swindon Town at 1.02, indicating a potential edge for the home side.
However, both teams have struggled recently, with Bristol Rovers losing 4 of their last 6 matches and Swindon Town drawing twice and losing four times in the same span. Additionally, the model suggests a 46% chance for Over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, meaning low-scoring outcomes are possible. The confidence grade is C, reflecting uncertainty in the match outcome.
Bristol Rovers vs Swindon Town: model vs market
| Source | Bristol Rovers | Draw | Swindon Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 29% | 33% |
| Market | 59% | 23% | 18% |
| Published | 54% | 25% | 22% |
| Edge | -20% | +5% | +15% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.60, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Bristol Rovers vs Swindon Town odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Bristol Rovers, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol Rovers | 1.57 | 1.57 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.94 | 3.94 | +0.00 |
| Swindon Town | 5.17 | 5.17 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Bristol Rovers and Swindon Town expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.64
- Attack rating (Bristol Rovers / Swindon Town)
- 0.90 / 0.90
- Defence rating (Bristol Rovers / Swindon Town)
- 1.20 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Bristol Rovers vs Swindon Town score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Bristol Rovers goals. Columns: Swindon Town goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Bristol Rovers vs Swindon Town goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Bristol Rovers vs Swindon Town
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bristol Rovers | 54% | 1.86 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.05 | |
| Swindon Town | 22% | 4.64 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.04 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.83 |
| No | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Bristol Rovers or draw) | 78% | 1.27 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Swindon Town) | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bristol Rovers win by 2+ | 19% | 5.39 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Bristol Rovers and Swindon Town recent form
Bristol Rovers
1W 0D 5L
Swindon Town
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Bristol Rovers at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-2
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Swindon Town away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-4
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 12 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Bristol Rovers at home only, Swindon Town away only.
Bristol Rovers vs Swindon Town head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Bristol Rovers 2 · draws 2 · Swindon Town 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Swindon Town | 1-1 | Bristol Rovers | League Two |
| 2025-12-13 | Bristol Rovers | 0-3 | Swindon Town | League Two |
| 2024-10-08 | Swindon Town | 4-0 | Bristol Rovers | EFL Trophy |
| 2022-10-18 | Bristol Rovers | 3-0 | Swindon Town | EFL Trophy |
| 2022-01-22 | Swindon Town | 1-1 | Bristol Rovers | League Two |
| 2021-10-02 | Bristol Rovers | 1-3 | Swindon Town | League Two |
| 2021-03-23 | Bristol Rovers | 0-1 | Swindon Town | League One |
| 2020-11-21 | Swindon Town | 1-0 | Bristol Rovers | League One |
| 2019-11-13 | Bristol Rovers | 1-0 | Swindon Town | EFL Trophy |
| 2017-11-08 | Bristol Rovers | 2-4 | Swindon Town | EFL Trophy |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Northampton vs Colchester 2026-10-24
- Cheltenham v Newport County — match page 2026-10-24
- Rotherham vs Shrewsbury — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Rochdale vs Accrington ST 2026-10-24
- Chesterfield v Crewe — match page 2026-10-24
- Gillingham vs Grimsby — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Crawley Town vs Tranmere 2026-10-24
- Exeter City v Fleetwood Town — match page 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Bristol Rovers, previous: Bristol Rovers – Salford City, 2026-10-20
- Bristol Rovers, next: Bristol Rovers vs Cambridge United prediction
- Swindon Town, previous: Barnet vs Swindon Town prediction
- Swindon Town, next: Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town prediction