York vs Port Vale preview
York faces Port Vale with a 56% probability of winning, while Port Vale has just a 16% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of York, which aligns with their expected goals of 1.52 compared to Port Vale's 0.69.
However, the match could deviate from this prediction if both teams manage to score, as our model indicates a 40% chance for both teams to score and a 38% chance for Over 2.5 goals. York's recent form shows a mix of results, with three draws in their last six matches, while Port Vale has won two of their last six. This could influence the outcome.
York vs Port Vale: model vs market
| Source | York | Draw | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 29% | 17% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 53% | 29% | 17% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.44 vs 0.72.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
York and Port Vale expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.16
- Attack rating (York / Port Vale)
- 1.17 / 0.63
- Defence rating (York / Port Vale)
- 0.98 / 0.88
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
York vs Port Vale score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: York goals. Columns: Port Vale goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
York vs Port Vale goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 40%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for York vs Port Vale
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | York | 53% | 1.88 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.41 | |
| Port Vale | 17% | 5.74 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37% | 2.72 |
| Under 2.5 | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40% | 2.48 |
| No | 60% | 1.68 | |
| Double chance | 1X (York or draw) | 83% | 1.21 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Port Vale) | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Handicap -1 | York win by 2+ | 28% | 3.62 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
York and Port Vale recent form
York
2W 3D 1L
Port Vale
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
York at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Port Vale away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 0.8 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: York at home only, Port Vale away only.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Bristol Rovers vs Swindon Town — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Rotherham vs Shrewsbury — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Rochdale vs Accrington ST 2026-10-24
- Chesterfield v Crewe — match page 2026-10-24
- Gillingham vs Grimsby — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Crawley Town vs Tranmere 2026-10-24
- Exeter City v Fleetwood Town — match page 2026-10-24
- Barnet vs Oldham — team news & stats 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- York, previous: York v Accrington ST analysis
- York, next: York – Northampton, 2026-11-07
- Port Vale, previous: Gillingham vs Port Vale: odds and pick
- Port Vale, next: Port Vale vs Scunthorpe: odds and pick