Aduana Stars vs Ashanti Gold preview
In the Ghana Premier League fixture between Aduana Stars and Ashanti Gold, the 1X2 probabilities show Aduana Stars at 50%, while Ashanti Gold stands at 19%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 15% chance according to our model. Aduana Stars have an expected goals figure of 1.36, compared to Ashanti Gold's 0.75.
While Aduana Stars are favored, the match could see different outcomes if both teams score, with a 41% probability for that scenario. Additionally, the chance of Over 2.5 goals is 35%. Recent form shows Aduana Stars with a mixed record of L-W-W-W-L-D, while Ashanti Gold has been more consistent with W-L-W-L-W-D. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Aduana Stars vs Ashanti Gold: model vs market
| Source | Aduana Stars | Draw | Ashanti Gold |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 30% | 19% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 50% | 30% | 19% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.36 vs 0.75.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Aduana Stars and Ashanti Gold expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.11
- Attack rating (Aduana Stars / Ashanti Gold)
- 0.91 / 1.24
- Defence rating (Aduana Stars / Ashanti Gold)
- 0.91 / 1.08
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Aduana Stars vs Ashanti Gold score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Aduana Stars goals. Columns: Ashanti Gold goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Aduana Stars vs Ashanti Gold goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 41%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Aduana Stars vs Ashanti Gold
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aduana Stars | 50% | 1.99 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.28 | |
| Ashanti Gold | 19% | 5.16 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35% | 2.83 |
| Under 2.5 | 65% | 1.55 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41% | 2.47 |
| No | 59% | 1.68 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Aduana Stars or draw) | 81% | 1.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.44 | |
| X2 (draw or Ashanti Gold) | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Handicap -1 | Aduana Stars win by 2+ | 25% | 4.01 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Aduana Stars and Ashanti Gold recent form
Aduana Stars
3W 1D 2L
Ashanti Gold
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Aduana Stars at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Ashanti Gold away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: Aduana Stars at home only, Ashanti Gold away only.
Aduana Stars vs Ashanti Gold head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Aduana Stars 4 · draws 2 · Ashanti Gold 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-17 | Aduana Stars | 0-0 | Ashanti Gold | Premier League |
| 2021-12-15 | Ashanti Gold | 0-1 | Aduana Stars | Premier League |
| 2021-07-05 | Aduana Stars | 1-0 | Ashanti Gold | Premier League |
| 2021-02-19 | Ashanti Gold | 4-0 | Aduana Stars | Premier League |
| 2020-03-08 | Aduana Stars | 0-0 | Ashanti Gold | Premier League |
| 2018-06-06 | Ashanti Gold | 2-0 | Aduana Stars | Premier League |
| 2017-10-22 | Ashanti Gold | 4-2 | Aduana Stars | Premier League |
| 2017-02-12 | Aduana Stars | 1-0 | Ashanti Gold | Premier League |
| 2016-08-21 | Aduana Stars | 2-0 | Ashanti Gold | Premier League |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
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- Asante Kotoko v Young Apostles — match page 2026-10-18
- Samartex v Medeama — match page 2026-10-18
- Debibi United vs Bibiani Gold Stars — team news & stats 2026-10-18
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- Basake Holy Stars v Bechem United — match page 2026-10-18
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Before and after this match
- Aduana Stars, previous: Young Apostles vs Aduana Stars: odds and pick
- Ashanti Gold, previous: Ashanti Gold vs Samartex prediction