Updated

Ghana Premier League · Matchday 7

Heart of Lions vs Berekum Chelsea

· Kpandu stadium, Kpandu

Full time0 – 2

Alin prediction was Heart of Lions to win

Cmodel only, no market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Heart of LionsDrawBerekum Chelsea

Heart of Lions vs Berekum Chelsea: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceHeart of LionsDrawBerekum Chelsea
Model50%26%24%
Market———
Published50%26%24%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 1.14.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Heart of Lions and Berekum Chelsea expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.75Heart of Lions
1.14Berekum Chelsea
Total expected goals
2.89
Attack rating (Heart of Lions / Berekum Chelsea)
1.17 / 1.32
Defence rating (Heart of Lions / Berekum Chelsea)
1.31 / 1.07

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Heart of Lions vs Berekum Chelsea score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.6% 5.2% 3.6% 1.4% 0.5% 1 8.6% 12.2% 6.3% 2.4% 0.9% 2 8.5% 9.7% 5.5% 2.1% 0.8% 3 4.9% 5.7% 3.2% 1.2% 0.5% 4+ 3.2% 3.7% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3%

Rows: Heart of Lions goals. Columns: Berekum Chelsea goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Heart of Lions vs Berekum Chelsea goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 80%
Over 2.5 55%
Over 3.5 33%
Both teams to score
57%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Heart of Lions vs Berekum Chelsea

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Heart of Lions50%1.98
Draw26%3.88
Berekum Chelsea24%4.21
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.555%1.81
Under 2.545%2.23
Both teams to scoreYes57%1.74
No43%2.35
Double chance1X (Heart of Lions or draw)76%1.31
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Berekum Chelsea)50%2.02
Handicap -1Heart of Lions win by 2+28%3.53
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Heart of Lions and Berekum Chelsea recent form

Heart of Lions 2W 2D 2L
Berekum Chelsea 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Heart of Lions at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-0
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
2 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Berekum Chelsea away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.33
Goals against / match
2.33
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.

League matches this season before kick-off: Heart of Lions at home only, Berekum Chelsea away only.

Heart of Lions vs Berekum Chelsea head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Heart of Lions 4 · draws 2 · Berekum Chelsea 4.

Heart of LionsDrawsBerekum Chelsea
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-15Berekum Chelsea2-1Heart of LionsGhana Premier League
2025-11-09Heart of Lions1-0Berekum ChelseaGhana Premier League
2025-04-13Berekum Chelsea1-0Heart of LionsPremier League
2024-11-10Heart of Lions1-0Berekum ChelseaPremier League
2024-06-16Berekum Chelsea2-2Heart of LionsPremier League
2023-12-31Heart of Lions2-0Berekum ChelseaPremier League
2015-06-28Heart of Lions1-1Berekum ChelseaPremier League
2015-03-22Berekum Chelsea1-0Heart of LionsPremier League
2014-02-26Berekum Chelsea3-0Heart of LionsPremier League
2013-12-01Heart of Lions3-0Berekum ChelseaPremier League

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Before and after this match