Updated

Ghana Premier League · Matchday 7

Vision vs Hearts of Oak

· Nii Adjei Kraku II Sports Complex, Tema

Full time0 – 1

Alin prediction was Vision to win

Cmodel only, no market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

16% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
VisionDrawHearts of Oak

Vision vs Hearts of Oak: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceVisionDrawHearts of Oak
Model39%35%26%
Market———
Published39%35%26%
Edge———

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Vision and Hearts of Oak expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.01Vision
0.77Hearts of Oak
Total expected goals
1.78
Attack rating (Vision / Hearts of Oak)
1.20 / 0.98
Defence rating (Vision / Hearts of Oak)
1.18 / 0.60

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Vision vs Hearts of Oak score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 18.2% 11.7% 5.0% 1.3% 0.3% 1 15.8% 14.4% 5.0% 1.3% 0.3% 2 8.6% 6.6% 2.5% 0.7% 0.1% 3 2.9% 2.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 4+ 0.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Vision goals. Columns: Hearts of Oak goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Vision vs Hearts of Oak goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 82%
Over 1.5 54%
Over 2.5 26%
Over 3.5 11%
Both teams to score
35%
No goals (0–0)
18%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Vision vs Hearts of Oak

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Vision39%2.57
Draw35%2.82
Hearts of Oak26%3.89
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.526%3.80
Under 2.574%1.36
Both teams to scoreYes35%2.83
No65%1.55
Double chance1X (Vision or draw)74%1.35
12 (either side)65%1.55
X2 (draw or Hearts of Oak)61%1.64
Handicap -1Vision win by 2+16%6.40
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Vision and Hearts of Oak recent form

Vision 1W 3D 2L
Hearts of Oak 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Vision at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-0
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
0.33
Clean sheets
2 of 3
  • They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Hearts of Oak away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-1
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
0.67
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Vision at home only, Hearts of Oak away only.

Vision vs Hearts of Oak head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Vision 1 · draws 1 · Hearts of Oak 2.

VisionDrawsHearts of Oak
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-11Vision1-0Hearts of OakGhana Premier League
2025-11-29Hearts of Oak1-0VisionGhana Premier League
2025-04-13Vision1-1Hearts of OakPremier League
2024-11-08Hearts of Oak1-0VisionPremier League

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Before and after this match