Updated

Ghana Premier League · Matchday 11

Heart of Lions vs Dreams

· Kpandu stadium, Kpandu

Full time1 – 2

Alin prediction was Heart of Lions to win

Cmodel only, no market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Heart of LionsDrawDreams

Heart of Lions vs Dreams: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceHeart of LionsDrawDreams
Model50%26%24%
Market———
Published50%26%24%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 1.11.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Heart of Lions and Dreams expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.70Heart of Lions
1.11Dreams
Total expected goals
2.81
Attack rating (Heart of Lions / Dreams)
1.05 / 1.08
Defence rating (Heart of Lions / Dreams)
1.56 / 1.18

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Heart of Lions vs Dreams score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.2% 5.6% 3.7% 1.4% 0.5% 1 9.1% 12.5% 6.3% 2.4% 0.8% 2 8.7% 9.6% 5.4% 2.0% 0.7% 3 4.9% 5.5% 3.0% 1.1% 0.4% 4+ 3.0% 3.4% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2%

Rows: Heart of Lions goals. Columns: Dreams goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Heart of Lions vs Dreams goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 78%
Over 2.5 53%
Over 3.5 31%
Both teams to score
56%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Heart of Lions vs Dreams

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Heart of Lions50%2.01
Draw26%3.80
Dreams24%4.19
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.553%1.88
Under 2.547%2.14
Both teams to scoreYes56%1.79
No44%2.27
Double chance1X (Heart of Lions or draw)76%1.31
12 (either side)74%1.36
X2 (draw or Dreams)50%1.99
Handicap -1Heart of Lions win by 2+28%3.63
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Heart of Lions and Dreams recent form

Heart of Lions 2W 0D 4L
Dreams 1W 3D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Heart of Lions at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-1
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Dreams away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-3
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
0.60
Goals against / match
1.20
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Heart of Lions at home only, Dreams away only.

Heart of Lions vs Dreams head-to-head

Last 9 meetings: Heart of Lions 3 · draws 3 · Dreams 3.

Heart of LionsDrawsDreams
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-15Dreams1-1Heart of LionsCup
2026-01-11Dreams3-0Heart of LionsGhana Premier League
2025-09-14Heart of Lions1-0DreamsGhana Premier League
2025-03-19Heart of Lions1-2DreamsPremier League
2024-12-01Dreams0-0Heart of LionsCup
2024-09-23Dreams2-2Heart of LionsPremier League
2024-05-19Dreams1-2Heart of LionsPremier League
2024-01-07Heart of Lions0-2DreamsCup
2024-01-04Heart of Lions1-0DreamsPremier League

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match