Samartex vs Hearts of Oak preview
In the Ghana Premier League fixture between Samartex and Hearts of Oak, the 1X2 probabilities show Samartex at 37%, a draw at 43%, and Hearts of Oak at 20%. The most likely scoreline is 0-0, with a 31% chance according to our model.
Samartex has an expected goals figure of 0.74, while Hearts of Oak sits lower at 0.46. The low probabilities for Over 2.5 goals at 12% and both teams to score at 20% suggest a tight match. Recent form shows Samartex with a W-D-W-L-W-D record, while Hearts of Oak has L-W-W-W-D-L. This could lead to a different outcome if either team exceeds expectations in attack.
Samartex vs Hearts of Oak: model vs market
| Source | Samartex | Draw | Hearts of Oak |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29% | 42% | 29% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 29% | 42% | 29% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Samartex and Hearts of Oak expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.34
- Attack rating (Samartex / Hearts of Oak)
- 0.95 / 1.11
- Defence rating (Samartex / Hearts of Oak)
- 0.91 / 0.52
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Samartex vs Hearts of Oak score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Samartex goals. Columns: Hearts of Oak goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Samartex vs Hearts of Oak goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 25%
- No goals (0–0)
- 27%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Samartex vs Hearts of Oak
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Samartex | 29% | 3.40 |
| Draw | 42% | 2.40 | |
| Hearts of Oak | 29% | 3.46 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 15% | 6.56 |
| Under 2.5 | 85% | 1.18 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 25% | 3.99 |
| No | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Samartex or draw) | 71% | 1.41 |
| 12 (either side) | 58% | 1.71 | |
| X2 (draw or Hearts of Oak) | 71% | 1.42 | |
| Handicap -1 | Samartex win by 2+ | 9% | 11.53 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Samartex and Hearts of Oak recent form
Samartex
3W 1D 2L
Hearts of Oak
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Samartex at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-0
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
Hearts of Oak away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 0.60
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Samartex at home only, Hearts of Oak away only.
Samartex vs Hearts of Oak head-to-head
Last 8 meetings: Samartex 3 · draws 3 · Hearts of Oak 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Samartex | 1-0 | Hearts of Oak | Ghana Premier League |
| 2025-12-26 | Hearts of Oak | 1-0 | Samartex | Ghana Premier League |
| 2025-06-08 | Hearts of Oak | 1-0 | Samartex | Premier League |
| 2025-01-19 | Samartex | 0-0 | Hearts of Oak | Premier League |
| 2024-03-23 | Samartex | 2-1 | Hearts of Oak | Premier League |
| 2023-10-21 | Hearts of Oak | 0-0 | Samartex | Premier League |
| 2023-05-07 | Samartex | 3-2 | Hearts of Oak | Premier League |
| 2023-01-15 | Hearts of Oak | 0-0 | Samartex | Premier League |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Heart of Lions v Dreams — match page 2026-11-14
- Ashanti Gold vs Karela — team news & stats 2026-11-15
- Aduana Stars vs Bechem United 2026-11-15
- Debibi United vs Port City 2026-11-15
- Swedru All Blacks v Berekum Chelsea — match page 2026-11-15
- Basake Holy Stars vs Vision — team news & stats 2026-11-15
- Young Apostles vs Medeama 2026-11-15
- Asante Kotoko v Bibiani Gold Stars — match page 2026-11-15
Before and after this match
- Samartex, previous: Bechem United – Samartex, 2026-11-08
- Hearts of Oak, previous: Hearts of Oak vs Heart of Lions: odds and pick