Verona vs Pisa preview
In the Serie B match between Verona and Pisa, the 1X2 probabilities show Verona at 45%, while Pisa is at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance. Verona has an expected goals figure of 2.14, compared to Pisa's 1.48.
Both teams to score is at 69%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 70%. Verona's recent form includes 3 wins in their last 5 matches, while Pisa has 3 wins as well, but with 2 losses in their last 5. The head-to-head record shows no wins for either side in the last 2 matches, with 2 draws. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Why this pick: Verona vs Pisa
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Verona 10, Pisa 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Verona vs Pisa: model vs market
| Source | Verona | Draw | Pisa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 22% | 26% |
| Market | 42% | 27% | 31% |
| Published | 44% | 26% | 29% |
| Edge | +2% | -1% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.14 vs 1.48.
- The market prices Verona below our published probability: +2.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.30, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Verona vs Pisa odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Verona, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Verona | 2.22 | 2.25 | +0.03 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.45 | -0.05 |
| Pisa | 3.02 | 3.07 | +0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Verona and Pisa expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.62
- Attack rating (Verona / Pisa)
- 1.22 / 1.14
- Defence rating (Verona / Pisa)
- 1.18 / 1.20
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Verona vs Pisa score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Verona goals. Columns: Pisa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Verona vs Pisa goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Verona vs Pisa
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Verona | 44% | 2.25 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.83 | |
| Pisa | 29% | 3.39 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.34 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.45 |
| No | 31% | 3.23 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Verona or draw) | 71% | 1.42 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Pisa) | 56% | 1.80 | |
| Handicap -1 | Verona win by 2+ | 32% | 3.17 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Verona and Pisa recent form
Verona
3W 1D 2L
Pisa
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Verona at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
Pisa away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Verona at home only, Pisa away only.
Verona vs Pisa head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Verona 0 · draws 4 · Pisa 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-06 | Verona | 0-0 | Pisa | Serie A |
| 2025-10-18 | Pisa | 0-0 | Verona | Serie A |
| 2017-03-26 | Verona | 1-1 | Pisa | Serie B |
| 2016-10-25 | Pisa | 0-0 | Verona | Serie B |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Cremonese v Juve Stabia — match page 2026-10-24
- Virtus Entella vs Mantova 2026-10-24
- Avellino v Padova — match page 2026-10-24
- Modena vs Cesena 2026-10-24
- Sudtirol v Sampdoria — match page 2026-10-24
- Catanzaro vs Ascoli — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Arezzo vs Benevento — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Palermo vs Carrarese — team news & stats 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Verona, previous: Verona v Catanzaro analysis
- Verona, next: Juve Stabia v Verona analysis
- Pisa, previous: Pisa v Cremonese analysis
- Pisa, next: Pisa – Palermo, 2026-10-28