Cerezo Osaka vs Kawasaki Frontale preview
Cerezo Osaka faces Kawasaki Frontale with a 32% chance of winning for Cerezo Osaka compared to 41% for Kawasaki Frontale. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.33 for Cerezo Osaka and 1.52 for Kawasaki Frontale.
Both teams have shown potential for scoring, with a 59% chance for both teams to score and a 54% probability for Over 2.5 goals. However, Cerezo Osaka's recent form includes three draws and only one win, which could impact their performance against a Kawasaki Frontale side that has won four of their last six matches.
Cerezo Osaka vs Kawasaki Frontale: model vs market
| Source | Cerezo Osaka | Draw | Kawasaki Frontale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 27% | 41% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 32% | 27% | 41% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Cerezo Osaka and Kawasaki Frontale expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.85
- Attack rating (Cerezo Osaka / Kawasaki Frontale)
- 0.99 / 1.31
- Defence rating (Cerezo Osaka / Kawasaki Frontale)
- 0.89 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cerezo Osaka vs Kawasaki Frontale score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cerezo Osaka goals. Columns: Kawasaki Frontale goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cerezo Osaka vs Kawasaki Frontale goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cerezo Osaka vs Kawasaki Frontale
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cerezo Osaka | 32% | 3.10 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.67 | |
| Kawasaki Frontale | 41% | 2.47 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.70 |
| No | 41% | 2.42 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cerezo Osaka or draw) | 59% | 1.68 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Kawasaki Frontale) | 68% | 1.48 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kawasaki Frontale win by 2+ | 20% | 4.88 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Cerezo Osaka and Kawasaki Frontale recent form
Cerezo Osaka
2W 3D 1L
Kawasaki Frontale
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cerezo Osaka at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-0
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.20
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
Kawasaki Frontale away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cerezo Osaka at home only, Kawasaki Frontale away only.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Shimizu S-pulse v Gamba Osaka — match page 2026-10-17
- JEF United Chiba vs Yokohama F. Marinos 2026-10-17
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga 2026-10-17
- Tokyo Verdy vs FC Tokyo — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Kashima v V-varen Nagasaki — match page 2026-10-17
- Mito Hollyhock v Urawa — match page 2026-10-17
- Kashiwa Reysol vs Nagoya Grampus — team news & stats 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Cerezo Osaka, previous: Cerezo Osaka – Yokohama F. Marinos, 2026-10-10
- Kawasaki Frontale, previous: Kawasaki Frontale v Nagoya Grampus analysis