Kashima vs V-varen Nagasaki preview
Kashima faces V-varen Nagasaki with a 59% probability of winning compared to 20% for V-varen Nagasaki. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with expected goals of 2.34 for Kashima and 1.32 for V-varen Nagasaki. There is a strong chance for Over 2.5 goals at 71% and both teams to score at 67%.
However, recent form shows Kashima with two wins and four losses in their last six matches, while V-varen Nagasaki has one win, two draws, and three losses. This inconsistency could impact the match outcome. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the prediction.
Kashima vs V-varen Nagasaki: model vs market
| Source | Kashima | Draw | V-varen Nagasaki |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59% | 21% | 20% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 59% | 21% | 20% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.34 vs 1.32.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Kashima and V-varen Nagasaki expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.65
- Attack rating (Kashima / V-varen Nagasaki)
- 1.37 / 0.97
- Defence rating (Kashima / V-varen Nagasaki)
- 1.04 / 1.17
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Kashima vs V-varen Nagasaki score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Kashima goals. Columns: V-varen Nagasaki goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Kashima vs V-varen Nagasaki goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Kashima vs V-varen Nagasaki
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kashima | 59% | 1.68 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.80 | |
| V-varen Nagasaki | 20% | 5.06 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71% | 1.42 |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | 3.41 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.49 |
| No | 33% | 3.02 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Kashima or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or V-varen Nagasaki) | 41% | 2.46 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kashima win by 2+ | 39% | 2.59 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Kashima and V-varen Nagasaki recent form
Kashima
2W 1D 3L
V-varen Nagasaki
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Kashima at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game on the road against 1.7 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
V-varen Nagasaki away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Kashima at home only, V-varen Nagasaki away only.
Kashima vs V-varen Nagasaki head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Kashima 1 · draws 0 · V-varen Nagasaki 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-16 | Kashima | 2-1 | V-varen Nagasaki | Emperor Cup |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Shimizu S-pulse v Gamba Osaka — match page 2026-10-17
- JEF United Chiba vs Yokohama F. Marinos 2026-10-17
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga 2026-10-17
- Tokyo Verdy vs FC Tokyo — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Cerezo Osaka vs Kawasaki Frontale — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Mito Hollyhock v Urawa — match page 2026-10-17
- Kashiwa Reysol vs Nagoya Grampus — team news & stats 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Kashima, previous: Kashima vs Gamba Osaka prediction
- V-varen Nagasaki, previous: JEF United Chiba v V-varen Nagasaki analysis