Shimizu S-pulse vs Gamba Osaka preview
In the J1 League fixture between Shimizu S-pulse and Gamba Osaka, the 1X2 probabilities show Shimizu S-pulse at 35%, Gamba Osaka at 34%, and a draw at 31%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Shimizu S-pulse, with a 10% chance. Both teams to score sits at 49%, suggesting a close match.
Shimizu S-pulse's recent form is W-W-W-L-D-L, while Gamba Osaka has struggled with L-W-L-L-L-D. The expected goals are closely matched, with Shimizu S-pulse at 1.18 and Gamba Osaka at 1.17. The confidence grade is C, indicating uncertainty in the outcome. A low scoring game could impact the chances of Over 2.5 goals, currently at 42%.
Shimizu S-pulse vs Gamba Osaka: model vs market
| Source | Shimizu S-pulse | Draw | Gamba Osaka |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 31% | 34% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 35% | 31% | 34% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Shimizu S-pulse and Gamba Osaka expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.35
- Attack rating (Shimizu S-pulse / Gamba Osaka)
- 0.82 / 1.00
- Defence rating (Shimizu S-pulse / Gamba Osaka)
- 0.90 / 1.00
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Shimizu S-pulse vs Gamba Osaka score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Shimizu S-pulse goals. Columns: Gamba Osaka goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Shimizu S-pulse vs Gamba Osaka goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Shimizu S-pulse vs Gamba Osaka
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Shimizu S-pulse | 35% | 2.85 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.26 | |
| Gamba Osaka | 34% | 2.92 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42% | 2.40 |
| Under 2.5 | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.04 |
| No | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Shimizu S-pulse or draw) | 66% | 1.52 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.44 | |
| X2 (draw or Gamba Osaka) | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Handicap -1 | Shimizu S-pulse win by 2+ | 15% | 6.52 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Shimizu S-pulse and Gamba Osaka recent form
Shimizu S-pulse
3W 1D 2L
Gamba Osaka
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Shimizu S-pulse at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gamba Osaka away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Shimizu S-pulse at home only, Gamba Osaka away only.
Shimizu S-pulse vs Gamba Osaka head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Shimizu S-pulse 0 · draws 1 · Gamba Osaka 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Shimizu S-pulse | 1-2 | Gamba Osaka | J1 League |
| 2026-02-28 | Gamba Osaka | 2-2 | Shimizu S-pulse | J1 League |
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Before and after this match
- Shimizu S-pulse, previous: Mito Hollyhock vs Shimizu S-pulse prediction
- Gamba Osaka, previous: Kashima vs Gamba Osaka prediction