Tokyo Verdy vs FC Tokyo preview
In the J1 League fixture between Tokyo Verdy and FC Tokyo, the 1X2 probabilities show FC Tokyo at 71% to win, compared to Tokyo Verdy's 8%. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, which occurs 16% of the time according to our model. FC Tokyo's recent form is strong, with 5 wins and 1 draw in their last 6 matches, while Tokyo Verdy has struggled with 4 draws and 2 losses.
While the expected goals suggest FC Tokyo will dominate with 2.03 compared to Tokyo Verdy's 0.56, the potential for a draw at 20% could disrupt the predicted outcome. Additionally, the chances for Over 2.5 goals sit at 48%, and both teams to score is at 38%, indicating some uncertainty in the final score.
Tokyo Verdy vs FC Tokyo: model vs market
| Source | Tokyo Verdy | Draw | FC Tokyo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 8% | 20% | 71% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 8% | 20% | 71% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 0.56.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Tokyo Verdy and FC Tokyo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.59
- Attack rating (Tokyo Verdy / FC Tokyo)
- 0.66 / 1.49
- Defence rating (Tokyo Verdy / FC Tokyo)
- 1.05 / 0.58
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Tokyo Verdy vs FC Tokyo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Tokyo Verdy goals. Columns: FC Tokyo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Tokyo Verdy vs FC Tokyo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 38%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Tokyo Verdy vs FC Tokyo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tokyo Verdy | 8% | 12.24 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.90 | |
| FC Tokyo | 71% | 1.40 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.09 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38% | 2.63 |
| No | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Tokyo Verdy or draw) | 29% | 3.50 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Tokyo) | 92% | 1.09 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Tokyo win by 2+ | 47% | 2.15 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Tokyo Verdy and FC Tokyo recent form
Tokyo Verdy
0W 3D 3L
FC Tokyo
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Tokyo Verdy at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
FC Tokyo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Tokyo Verdy at home only, FC Tokyo away only.
Tokyo Verdy vs FC Tokyo head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Tokyo Verdy 0 · draws 1 · FC Tokyo 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | FC Tokyo | 2-1 | Tokyo Verdy | J1 League |
| 2026-03-22 | Tokyo Verdy | 0-0 | FC Tokyo | J1 League |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Shimizu S-pulse v Gamba Osaka — match page 2026-10-17
- JEF United Chiba vs Yokohama F. Marinos 2026-10-17
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga 2026-10-17
- Cerezo Osaka vs Kawasaki Frontale — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Kashima v V-varen Nagasaki — match page 2026-10-17
- Mito Hollyhock v Urawa — match page 2026-10-17
- Kashiwa Reysol vs Nagoya Grampus — team news & stats 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Tokyo Verdy, previous: Tokyo Verdy – Sanfrecce Hiroshima, 2026-10-11
- FC Tokyo, previous: FC Tokyo vs Urawa: odds and pick