Kashiwa Reysol vs Nagoya Grampus: model vs market
| Source | Kashiwa Reysol | Draw | Nagoya Grampus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 81% | 12% | 7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 81% | 12% | 7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.39 vs 1.05.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Kashiwa Reysol and Nagoya Grampus expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.44
- Attack rating (Kashiwa Reysol / Nagoya Grampus)
- 1.70 / 0.80
- Defence rating (Kashiwa Reysol / Nagoya Grampus)
- 1.01 / 1.38
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Kashiwa Reysol vs Nagoya Grampus score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Kashiwa Reysol goals. Columns: Nagoya Grampus goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Kashiwa Reysol vs Nagoya Grampus goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Kashiwa Reysol vs Nagoya Grampus
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kashiwa Reysol | 81% | 1.24 |
| Draw | 12% | 8.46 | |
| Nagoya Grampus | 7% | 13.69 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82% | 1.22 |
| Under 2.5 | 18% | 5.52 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.58 |
| No | 37% | 2.71 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Kashiwa Reysol or draw) | 93% | 1.08 |
| 12 (either side) | 88% | 1.13 | |
| X2 (draw or Nagoya Grampus) | 19% | 5.23 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kashiwa Reysol win by 2+ | 64% | 1.55 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Kashiwa Reysol and Nagoya Grampus recent form
Kashiwa Reysol
4W 0D 2L
Nagoya Grampus
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Kashiwa Reysol at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Nagoya Grampus away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Kashiwa Reysol at home only, Nagoya Grampus away only.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Shimizu S-pulse v Gamba Osaka — match page 2026-10-17
- JEF United Chiba vs Yokohama F. Marinos 2026-10-17
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga 2026-10-17
- Tokyo Verdy vs FC Tokyo — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Cerezo Osaka vs Kawasaki Frontale — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Kashima v V-varen Nagasaki — match page 2026-10-17
- Mito Hollyhock v Urawa — match page 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Kashiwa Reysol, previous: Kashiwa Reysol – Vissel Kobe, 2026-10-09
- Nagoya Grampus, previous: Kawasaki Frontale v Nagoya Grampus analysis