Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga preview
In the J1 League fixture between Sanfrecce Hiroshima and Kyoto Sanga, the 1X2 probabilities show a strong likelihood for Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 79%, compared to just 7% for Kyoto Sanga. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with an 11% chance. Sanfrecce Hiroshima has an expected goals figure of 2.79, while Kyoto Sanga stands at only 0.74.
While Sanfrecce Hiroshima is favored, factors like Kyoto Sanga's recent form, which includes 3 wins in their last 6 matches, could influence the outcome. Additionally, the model suggests a 68% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance for both teams to score, indicating potential for surprises in this match.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga: model vs market
| Source | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | Draw | Kyoto Sanga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 79% | 14% | 7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 79% | 14% | 7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.79 vs 0.74.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Sanfrecce Hiroshima and Kyoto Sanga expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.53
- Attack rating (Sanfrecce Hiroshima / Kyoto Sanga)
- 1.76 / 0.92
- Defence rating (Sanfrecce Hiroshima / Kyoto Sanga)
- 0.62 / 1.09
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sanfrecce Hiroshima goals. Columns: Kyoto Sanga goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 79% | 1.26 |
| Draw | 14% | 7.09 | |
| Kyoto Sanga | 7% | 15.18 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.16 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 2.02 |
| No | 50% | 1.98 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw) | 93% | 1.07 |
| 12 (either side) | 86% | 1.16 | |
| X2 (draw or Kyoto Sanga) | 21% | 4.83 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima win by 2+ | 60% | 1.67 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Sanfrecce Hiroshima and Kyoto Sanga recent form
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
4W 1D 1L
Kyoto Sanga
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sanfrecce Hiroshima at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 3.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
Kyoto Sanga away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sanfrecce Hiroshima at home only, Kyoto Sanga away only.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1 · draws 0 · Kyoto Sanga 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Kyoto Sanga | 0-4 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | J1 League |
| 2026-02-27 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 1-2 | Kyoto Sanga | J1 League |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Shimizu S-pulse v Gamba Osaka — match page 2026-10-17
- JEF United Chiba vs Yokohama F. Marinos 2026-10-17
- Tokyo Verdy vs FC Tokyo — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Cerezo Osaka vs Kawasaki Frontale — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Kashima v V-varen Nagasaki — match page 2026-10-17
- Mito Hollyhock v Urawa — match page 2026-10-17
- Kashiwa Reysol vs Nagoya Grampus — team news & stats 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima, previous: Tokyo Verdy – Sanfrecce Hiroshima, 2026-10-11
- Kyoto Sanga, previous: Kyoto Sanga vs Machida Zelvia: odds and pick