JEF United Chiba vs Yokohama F. Marinos preview
In the J1 League fixture between JEF United Chiba and Yokohama F. Marinos, the 1X2 probabilities show a clear advantage for Yokohama at 63%, compared to JEF United Chiba's 12%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 14% chance. JEF United Chiba's recent form includes 3 losses and 1 win in their last 5 matches, while Yokohama F. Marinos has 3 wins and 2 draws in the same period.
The expected goals indicate JEF United Chiba at 0.69 and Yokohama F. Marinos at 1.82. With 46% for Over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, the match could see a low-scoring affair if JEF United Chiba struggles to convert chances.
JEF United Chiba vs Yokohama F. Marinos: model vs market
| Source | JEF United Chiba | Draw | Yokohama F. Marinos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 12% | 24% | 63% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 12% | 24% | 63% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 0.69.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
JEF United Chiba and Yokohama F. Marinos expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.51
- Attack rating (JEF United Chiba / Yokohama F. Marinos)
- 0.74 / 1.09
- Defence rating (JEF United Chiba / Yokohama F. Marinos)
- 1.29 / 0.64
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
JEF United Chiba vs Yokohama F. Marinos score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: JEF United Chiba goals. Columns: Yokohama F. Marinos goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
JEF United Chiba vs Yokohama F. Marinos goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 43%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for JEF United Chiba vs Yokohama F. Marinos
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | JEF United Chiba | 12% | 8.03 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.16 | |
| Yokohama F. Marinos | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.18 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.35 |
| No | 57% | 1.74 | |
| Double chance | 1X (JEF United Chiba or draw) | 37% | 2.74 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Yokohama F. Marinos) | 88% | 1.14 | |
| Handicap -1 | Yokohama F. Marinos win by 2+ | 38% | 2.61 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
JEF United Chiba and Yokohama F. Marinos recent form
JEF United Chiba
1W 1D 4L
Yokohama F. Marinos
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
JEF United Chiba at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Yokohama F. Marinos away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: JEF United Chiba at home only, Yokohama F. Marinos away only.
JEF United Chiba vs Yokohama F. Marinos head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: JEF United Chiba 0 · draws 0 · Yokohama F. Marinos 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | JEF United Chiba | 2-3 | Yokohama F. Marinos | J1 League |
| 2026-03-14 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 2-0 | JEF United Chiba | J1 League |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
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- Kashima v V-varen Nagasaki — match page 2026-10-17
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- Kashiwa Reysol vs Nagoya Grampus — team news & stats 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- JEF United Chiba, previous: JEF United Chiba v V-varen Nagasaki analysis
- Yokohama F. Marinos, previous: Cerezo Osaka – Yokohama F. Marinos, 2026-10-10