Aktobe vs Kairat Almaty preview
In the match between Aktobe and Kairat Almaty, the 1X2 probabilities show Kairat Almaty at 39% and Aktobe at 35%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-2, which occurs with a 9% probability. Kairat Almaty has a strong recent record against Aktobe, winning all three of their last encounters.
Both teams to score stands at 63%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 60%. Aktobe's expected goals are 1.51, slightly lower than Kairat Almaty's 1.58. If Aktobe can improve their recent form, which includes two wins in their last five matches, they could challenge Kairat Almaty more effectively.
Aktobe vs Kairat Almaty: model vs market
| Source | Aktobe | Draw | Kairat Almaty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 26% | 39% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 35% | 26% | 39% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Aktobe and Kairat Almaty expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.09
- Attack rating (Aktobe / Kairat Almaty)
- 1.25 / 1.22
- Defence rating (Aktobe / Kairat Almaty)
- 1.14 / 0.82
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Aktobe vs Kairat Almaty score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Aktobe goals. Columns: Kairat Almaty goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Aktobe vs Kairat Almaty goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Aktobe vs Kairat Almaty
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aktobe | 35% | 2.83 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.84 | |
| Kairat Almaty | 39% | 2.59 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.59 |
| No | 37% | 2.70 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Aktobe or draw) | 61% | 1.63 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Kairat Almaty) | 65% | 1.55 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kairat Almaty win by 2+ | 20% | 5.06 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Aktobe and Kairat Almaty recent form
Aktobe
3W 1D 2L
Kairat Almaty
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Aktobe at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-3-2
- Win rate
- 64%
- Goals for / match
- 1.64
- Goals against / match
- 0.93
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 14
- They have won 13 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kairat Almaty away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-3-2
- Win rate
- 64%
- Goals for / match
- 1.71
- Goals against / match
- 0.79
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 14
- They have won 18 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 10 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Aktobe at home only, Kairat Almaty away only.
Aktobe vs Kairat Almaty head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Aktobe 0 · draws 0 · Kairat Almaty 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-16 | Kairat Almaty | 1-0 | Aktobe | Kazakhstan Premier League |
| 2025-09-14 | Kairat Almaty | 1-0 | Aktobe | Kazakhstan Premier League |
| 2025-05-30 | Aktobe | 1-2 | Kairat Almaty | Kazakhstan Premier League |
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
- Okzhetpes v Kaspiy — match page 2026-10-24
- Zhetysu v FK Tobol Kostanay — match page 2026-10-24
- Kyzyl-Zhar vs Ulytau 2026-10-24
- Ordabasy v Zhenys — match page 2026-10-24
- Altay vs Yelimay Semey — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Atyrau vs Irtysh 2026-10-25
- FC Astana vs Kaisar 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Aktobe, previous: Aktobe – Ordabasy, 2026-10-17
- Kairat Almaty, previous: Kairat Almaty – Panathinaikos, 2026-10-22
- Kairat Almaty, next: Atalanta – Kairat Almaty, 2026-11-05