Okzhetpes vs Kaspiy preview
In the upcoming match between Okzhetpes and Kaspiy, the 1X2 probabilities show Okzhetpes at 48%, while Kaspiy sits at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs with a 9% probability. Both teams to score is projected at 62%, and there is a 60% chance of Over 2.5 goals, indicating a potentially high-scoring encounter.
Okzhetpes has shown solid form recently with three wins in their last six matches, while Kaspiy has a mixed record with three wins and two losses. The expected goals suggest Okzhetpes will score around 1.81 and Kaspiy about 1.30. If Kaspiy can improve their attacking output or if Okzhetpes underperforms, these predictions could shift.
Okzhetpes vs Kaspiy: model vs market
| Source | Okzhetpes | Draw | Kaspiy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 25% | 27% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 49% | 25% | 27% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 1.35.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Okzhetpes and Kaspiy expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.22
- Attack rating (Okzhetpes / Kaspiy)
- 1.16 / 1.10
- Defence rating (Okzhetpes / Kaspiy)
- 1.07 / 1.09
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Okzhetpes vs Kaspiy score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Okzhetpes goals. Columns: Kaspiy goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Okzhetpes vs Kaspiy goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Okzhetpes vs Kaspiy
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Okzhetpes | 49% | 2.06 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.07 | |
| Kaspiy | 27% | 3.72 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.66 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.57 |
| No | 36% | 2.76 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Okzhetpes or draw) | 73% | 1.37 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Kaspiy) | 51% | 1.94 | |
| Handicap -1 | Okzhetpes win by 2+ | 28% | 3.60 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Okzhetpes and Kaspiy recent form
Okzhetpes
4W 0D 2L
Kaspiy
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Okzhetpes at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-4-1
- Win rate
- 64%
- Goals for / match
- 1.71
- Goals against / match
- 0.93
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 14
- They have won 13 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kaspiy away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-8
- Win rate
- 21%
- Goals for / match
- 0.79
- Goals against / match
- 1.29
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 14
- They have won 9 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Okzhetpes at home only, Kaspiy away only.
Okzhetpes vs Kaspiy head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Okzhetpes 1 · draws 0 · Kaspiy 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-17 | Kaspiy | 1-3 | Okzhetpes | Kazakhstan Premier League |
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
- Zhetysu v FK Tobol Kostanay — match page 2026-10-24
- Kyzyl-Zhar vs Ulytau 2026-10-24
- Ordabasy v Zhenys — match page 2026-10-24
- Altay vs Yelimay Semey — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Atyrau vs Irtysh 2026-10-25
- Aktobe vs Kairat Almaty — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- FC Astana vs Kaisar 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Okzhetpes, previous: Okzhetpes v Kyzyl-Zhar analysis
- Kaspiy, previous: FC Astana vs Kaspiy: odds and pick