Ordabasy vs Zhenys preview
In the upcoming match between Ordabasy and Zhenys, the 1X2 probabilities show Ordabasy at 83% to win, while Zhenys sits at just 5%. The most likely scoreline is 3-0, with a 10% chance. Ordabasy's expected goals are 3.14 compared to Zhenys' 0.76, highlighting a significant attacking advantage for the home side.
However, Zhenys could disrupt this prediction. They have recently shown some resilience with a win in their last six matches, and the probability for both teams to score is 52%. If Zhenys finds a way to capitalize on any defensive lapses from Ordabasy, the match could yield a different outcome than expected.
Ordabasy vs Zhenys: model vs market
| Source | Ordabasy | Draw | Zhenys |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 83% | 12% | 5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 83% | 12% | 5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.15 vs 0.76.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Ordabasy and Zhenys expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.91
- Attack rating (Ordabasy / Zhenys)
- 1.66 / 0.99
- Defence rating (Ordabasy / Zhenys)
- 0.67 / 1.28
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ordabasy vs Zhenys score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ordabasy goals. Columns: Zhenys goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ordabasy vs Zhenys goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ordabasy vs Zhenys
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ordabasy | 83% | 1.20 |
| Draw | 12% | 8.68 | |
| Zhenys | 5% | 19.02 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75% | 1.34 |
| Under 2.5 | 25% | 3.96 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.95 |
| No | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ordabasy or draw) | 95% | 1.06 |
| 12 (either side) | 88% | 1.13 | |
| X2 (draw or Zhenys) | 17% | 5.96 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ordabasy win by 2+ | 66% | 1.51 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Ordabasy and Zhenys recent form
Ordabasy
5W 0D 1L
Zhenys
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ordabasy at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 12-2-0
- Win rate
- 86%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.57
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 14
- They have won 20 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Zhenys away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-9
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 0.86
- Goals against / match
- 1.86
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 14
- They have won 8 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Ordabasy at home only, Zhenys away only.
Ordabasy vs Zhenys head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Ordabasy 2 · draws 1 · Zhenys 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-16 | Zhenys | 0-2 | Ordabasy | Kazakhstan Premier League |
| 2025-09-13 | Ordabasy | 2-1 | Zhenys | Kazakhstan Premier League |
| 2025-05-30 | Zhenys | 2-2 | Ordabasy | Kazakhstan Premier League |
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
- Okzhetpes v Kaspiy — match page 2026-10-24
- Zhetysu v FK Tobol Kostanay — match page 2026-10-24
- Kyzyl-Zhar vs Ulytau 2026-10-24
- Altay vs Yelimay Semey — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Atyrau vs Irtysh 2026-10-25
- Aktobe vs Kairat Almaty — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- FC Astana vs Kaisar 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Ordabasy, previous: Aktobe – Ordabasy, 2026-10-17
- Zhenys, previous: FK Tobol Kostanay – Zhenys, 2026-10-17